Key investment points
Electrical equipment 10833 rose 5.53%, outperforming the market. This week (February 14-february 18, the same below), power generation equipment rose 6.91%, wind power rose 5.69%, photovoltaic rose 5.28%, lithium battery rose 5.22%, new energy vehicles rose 3.91%, nuclear power rose 1.06%, industrial control automation rose 0%, and power generation and power grid fell 1.99%. The top five gainers are * ST Rongjie, Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ; The top five declines were Dalian Insulator Group Co.Ltd(002606) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical Co.Ltd(002851) , Fujian Superpipe Co.Ltd(300198) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: China Automobile Association sold 431000 electric vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 140% / – 19%; Passenger Federation: in January, 412000 electric passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a month on month ratio of + 141% / – 19%, and 347000 were retail, with a month on month ratio of + 132% / – 27%, with a penetration rate of 16.6%; In January, the output of power battery was 30gwh, with a month on month ratio of + 146% / – 6%, and the installed capacity was 16.2gwh, with a month on month ratio of + 87% / – 38%; Domestic Tesla produced 68000 vehicles in January and wholesale 60000 vehicles (Mom – 16%), of which 40000 were exported; The supply chain of the United States is not enough to guarantee 300750 {supply chain; Weilai will release the new model ES7 in mid April; Tesla and liontown signed a large lithium ore purchase order; The delivery time of Tesla‘s new model X was postponed to July again; Xiaopeng established a new company, involving new energy power exchange business; Metal cobalt is quoted at 541900 yuan / ton, which is + 2.7% this week; nickel is quoted at 180300 yuan / ton, which is + 2.1% this week; manganese is quoted at 40400 yuan / ton, which is flat this week; metal lithium is quoted at 2.08 million yuan / ton, which is + 4.0% this week; battery grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 445400 yuan / ton, which is + 12.6% this week; lithium hydroxide is quoted at 377500 yuan / ton, which is + 15.3% this week; industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate is quoted at 7500 yuan / ton, which is – 16.7% this week, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 335000 yuan / ton, which is + 7.4% this week. The quotation of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 354500 yuan / ton, which is + 9.2% this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 139000 yuan / ton, which is + 1.5% this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of ternary PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. New energy: nine provinces including Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Shandong have released their new and renewable energy installation plans in 2022; In 2021, the new energy installed capacity of Shandong power grid continued to rise, and the photovoltaic capacity increased by 46.01% compared with that in 2021; Heilongjiang issued a new deal and proposed that the installed capacity of new energy in the 14th five year plan is 30GW; Xinjiang scenery distribution and storage will exceed 658.5mw/1407mwh in 2022; LG new energy acquired the energy storage manufacturers of Japan electric and entered the energy storage system integration market; Zhejiang has formulated the implementation goal of “double carbon”: by 2030, the installed capacity of Fengguang will be more than 54gw; China Resources Power will invest and build Fengguang storage and other clean energy projects in Zixing, Hunan; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 247 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.82%; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.33/6.5/8.55 yuan / wafer, which is flat / + 1.09% / flat month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.1 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of + 0.92%; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.83 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat.
Company level: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : the company issued a performance express. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 8.203 billion yuan, an increase of 127.35% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 4q21 was 2.258 billion yuan, an increase of 720.14% at the same time. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : sign cooperation agreements with Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Huayou holdings, etc. on the whole industry chain project of new energy batteries to jointly mine mineral resources. Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) : the company plans to grant restricted shares (class I restricted shares and class II restricted shares) to 156 incentive objects, with a total of no more than 1.37% of the total share capital. The unlocking performance target is that the revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will not be less than the cumulative value of 5 billion yuan / 6 billion yuan / 7.5 billion yuan in the assessment period. Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : signed a long sales order with Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) wholly-owned subsidiary of Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) for 1.892 billion 210 size monocrystalline silicon wafers. According to the current average price of pvinfolink’s latest monocrystalline silicon wafers, the company expects a total sales amount of 15.95 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the actual purchase price is in the form of monthly negotiation. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) : it is proposed to purchase 100% equity of Dahua mining and 100% equity of Sanli mining held by fengsha group by paying cash and assuming debt. The total transaction price is RMB 3.344 billion. This equity acquisition does not constitute a major asset reorganization.
Investment strategy: in January, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China was 430000, with a month on month ratio of + 141% / – 19%, showing a strong performance. We expect that the sales volume of Q1 will exceed 1.1 million, with a high increase and fixed tone throughout the year; In January, the impulse at the end of the quarter in Europe and the United States fell, of which 127000 vehicles were sold in ten European countries, with a month on month ratio of + 33% / – 48%, and 62000 vehicles in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / – 18%, in line with market expectations. We expect that in 2022, the sales volume in China will exceed 6 million units (including exports), that in Europe will exceed 2.8 million units, that in the United States will exceed 1.3 million units, and that in the world will exceed 10 million units, an increase of 60% +. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to last until 2022. In 2022, there is still a double increase in volume and profit; The price rise of battery link fell to the ground, with an increase of 5-10%. Some car enterprises have followed the price rise, and new orders are strong. In the short term, Q1 production is flat month on month (MOM) and not light in the off-season, while the valuation of the electric vehicle sector is callback to 20-40x, which is still at the lower limit of historical valuation. The Q4 performance of the leading companies exceeds market expectations. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector and strongly promote the leaders in all links. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emission will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. At the end of 2021, the silicon material will be slightly loose, and the components will drop slightly to 1.8-1.9 yuan / watt. After that, there is a strong demand for photovoltaic installation, and the household continues to be hot. At the same time, the time-sharing price policy promotes the development of industrial and commercial distribution and energy storage. In the year of photovoltaic installation in 2022, we expect to install 155-160gw in 2021, With an increase of 20% + at the same time, it is expected to exceed 45% + in 2022. Q1 is in full production and the off-season is not light. It is optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the prosperity began to pick up from December 2021. In January, the leading orders were further restored, and the leading is always strong. It is suggested to focus on the layout. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. The focus will be on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization, pumped storage and other directions, which will bring new opportunities. After the rush installation of wind power, the cost has decreased significantly, and the export has begun to be competitive. It is expected to develop steadily under the background of carbon neutrality in China.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery performance greatly exceeds expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high capacity release and high increase period), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm, strong profitability) Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (the demand for general automation has gradually warmed up and the powertrain has made a comprehensive breakthrough), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (the global leader of negative electrode and the leader of diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (the supermarket expectation and profit inflection point of iron and lithium demand), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (the Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and the leader of new lithium salt), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (the global leader of inverter and the forward-looking layout of energy storage) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers, high-volume growth period), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader in carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales volume of electric vehicles continues to exceed market expectations, external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader in series inverter, high performance growth), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components, strong comprehensive strength) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component faucet, profit elasticity can be expected in 2022), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter, energy storage business), Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse faucet is expected to double continuously, and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt faucet, positive prepolymer faucet), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 component faucet, household system) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer, high-quality and rapid expansion of production by customers), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (leader of EVA and Poe, amount of photosensitive dry film), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket expectation in 2021), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (leader of electrolyte and fluorine chemical industry exceeding market expectation), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (leader of silicon and perc battery, profit exceeding market expectation) Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader, benefit from power Internet of things), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) .
It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) .
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
