The competition pattern is the key force to determine the enterprise value. We see that the top 20 heavy stocks in food and beverage positions are clear, whether Baijiu, dairy products, beer or quick freezing faucets, braised flavor faucets and yeast tap. Therefore, the market gives more consideration to the pricing of the competitive pattern. Conversely, in industries with unstable or unstable competition pattern, the market is prone to relatively large fluctuations in the pricing process, and the short-term performance has a greater impact on the valuation. The double kill after Davis double click is common. The brand of high-end products is the king, and the leftovers of mass products are the king. The competitive advantage of the former lies in the brand, which lies in the binding ability on the demand side, manifested in high pricing ability; The latter’s competitive advantage lies in the scale, which is appropriately superimposed with some brand premium brought by differentiation, which is manifested in the ability of continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase. Since the epidemic, the income of mainstream companies has further increased, which not only reflects the continuous upgrading process of consumption on the demand side, but also reflects the competitiveness of listed enterprises on the supply side better than their peers. The difference in profitability lies more in the difference in competition pattern and product attributes. Operating against the trend, the power of the competitive pattern is even greater.
Baijiu‘s competition pattern is clear and consumption upgrading continues to raise the main price band of all levels of consumption. In the past two years, Baijiu has been gradually enriched at the ultra high price level. Feitian Maotai has brought out a super high-end price band of more than 3000 yuan, and non-standard Maotai is consolidating a new price band of 4000-7000 yuan. The hongyunlang and Qingyun Lang of Langjiu are also making low-key efforts at more than 3000 yuan. Maotai 1935 and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) bring out the price band of 1500-2000 yuan, and gradually explore the volume. Xijiu and Guojiao also have representative product layout. This super high-end price volume has exceeded the gold price peak of ten years, which is the result of efforts and consumers’ choice of the liquor head enterprises, and the strength of Baijiu‘s high-end attributes. The emergence and gradual maturity of ultra-high-end price belt leave room for the development of thousand yuan price belt. Puwu and Guojiao, as representative single products, still have room for volume increase, and Junpin Xijiu, qinghualang and internal ginseng also have a large volume. With the continuous accumulation of potential energy from sauce and wine category to brand potential energy, the 1000 yuan price band will continue to expand. Under the condition of relatively stable industry pattern, high-end Luzhou flavor will benefit. The secondary high-end of 300-600 yuan has become the main price band for daily banquets, wedding banquets and other scenes. Although there are differences in economic development among provinces and cities, the gradual upgrading of consumer Baijiu is a common fact. For example, there is an obvious demand in the price band of 600 yuan in Anhui, national famous wines began to enter, and Gujing began to use GU20 to develop the price band of 500-600 yuan. Then, at the price of 100-200 yuan, it will bring room for the development of Yingjia Dongzang. The conversion of real estate wine also shows a special competition pattern of Baijiu, that is, the price competition of Baijiu is upward. Consumers and channels jointly decide the product life cycle of 3-5 years, and the brand is upward and price competitive. In terms of sales volume, there is still a lot of room for growth for head liquor enterprises. Similarly, Jiannanchun’s high collection capacity is willing to develop rapidly in Shandong, Northeast China, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin and Hebei, and the rapid layout of drunkards across the country. It can be seen that there is a huge room for upgrading at the price of 300-400 yuan.
Juewe’s share price trend is a typical n-shaped. With the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the opening of stores against the trend first rose a wave of expectations, and then the share price fell sharply under the expectation of overestimation and the negative impact of the epidemic. At present, the company still insists on accelerating the opening of stores. It not only encourages existing franchisees to open stores with cash, but also encourages franchisees’ store employees to open stores in the offline market, but also integrates brand stores with their own funds. Jue Wei’s industry is a typical mass product. The remaining ones are the king. Scale advantages, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are the key words. After opening a store against the trend, the industry pattern will be clearer. Compared with 2019, the company’s revenue and profit still have a certain growth, and the number of stores has increased by nearly 3000. The decision-making behind juewe is more like the thinking process of value investment. On a long-life cycle product track with brand awareness, the position is increased against the trend in the low period of the industry, and finally obtain the competitive advantage of scale superimposing a little brand premium, so as to open the second curve. From the perspective of valuation, if there is no impact of the epidemic, it is estimated that with an annualized profit growth rate of 20%, the profit of 800 million in 2019 corresponds to about 1.4 billion in 2022. At present, the market value should be about 25 times the valuation. Considering the clearer expectation of the competition pattern and the second curve, this valuation level is already at a reasonably low level. The impact of the epidemic is uncertain. Optimism is a better choice. What Jue Wei does is in line with the thinking process of value investment. The catalyst for the rise of stock price is the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the obvious recovery of juewe’s profitability, and investors who pay attention to juewe in the early stage can gradually buy it.
Industry investment strategy: recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Zhou Heiya, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) .
Risk factors: repeated epidemic situation and food safety problems.
