With the normal release of demand, the national development and Reform Commission focused on cracking down on the speculation of iron ore prices
With the gradual resumption of production and construction of the terminal, the steel transaction has gradually warmed up, and the latest weekly apparent demand is generally acceptable compared with the performance of the same period in history. Due to the obvious contraction of supply since the second half of 2021, Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of the five varieties is at a low level. If the demand can be released normally in the later stage, the commodity price is expected to be strong. The current time point is a steel price sensitive period. In the future, we need to focus on the marginal changes of two factors: first, the recovery progress of downstream demand, especially the surface demand of construction steel; Second, with the end of the Winter Olympics, whether the production restriction in the area around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be relaxed, especially in Tangshan, an important steel town in China, the blast furnace operating rate this week was only 36.51%, far lower than the normal level. On the other hand, with the continuous rise of ore prices in the early stage, the national development and Reform Commission has significantly strengthened its price supervision. This week, it interviewed relevant mining traders and focused on cracking down on market speculation. However, considering that the supply of iron ore is dominated by overseas and the increase of overseas shipment volume is limited in 2022, if the steady growth promotes the obvious repair of molten iron production, the ore price may be strong, so the effect of the regulatory measures of the national development and Reform Commission needs to be verified. In terms of segments, we focus on areas where supply is relaxed but the marginal certainty of demand is improved, such as the water pipe industry. The main beneficiaries are Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) and the upstream material layout opportunities brought by the high boom of the oil and gas chain. The main beneficiaries are Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Ore prices fell and fluctuated, and coke prices are expected to stabilize
(1) iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 160.3405 million tons, up 2.55361 million tons month on month; The global shipment of iron ore was 25.911 million tons, down 1.342 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the delivery volume of iron ore in Australia was 13.591 million tons, with a decrease of 770000 tons on a weekly basis; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 4.654 million tons, up 87000 tons on a weekly basis. At the same time, the molten iron output of 247 steel plants this week reached 2.0301 million tons, with a decrease of 30300 tons on a weekly basis. This week, the regulatory authorities continuously issued documents on the iron ore market, and the ore prices fell one after another due to the influence of policies. From the perspective of ore fundamentals, although the current supply and demand is relatively loose and the port inventory continues to accumulate, the "steady growth" policy is superimposed on the relaxed expectation of production restriction, the probability of recovery of hot metal production in the later stage is large, the demand for iron ore will usher in a marginal recovery, and the overall central rise of ore price is expected; (2) Coke: after the continuous reduction of coke price, coking plants generally suffered losses, and there was a great voice for the rise of short-term coke enterprises. With the subsequent recovery of hot metal production, the coke price is expected to stabilize and recover.
Plate key data tracking
Stage of gradual recovery of demand: the average trading volume of construction steel in China this week (February 14-february 18) was 74400 tons, an increase of 18000 tons compared with the average before the festival. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 1.646 million tons, with a week on month increase of 104000 tons; The apparent consumption of hot rolled sector and coil was 2.916 million tons, with a week on month increase of 233000 tons;
Supply picked up moderately: the national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 69.58%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.39%; The capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 52.14%, and the week on month ratio decreased by 0.61pct. The national weekly output of the five varieties was 8.861 million tons, up 156600 tons month on month;
Profits continued to decline: this week (2.14-2.18), the gross profit per ton of rebar was 439 yuan, up 189 yuan month on month; The gross profit of hot-rolled sector was 368 yuan, up 81 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of cold rolled sheet was 242 yuan, up 186 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of medium and heavy sector was 323 yuan, up 180 yuan month on month.
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
