The price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel landing is expected, and the value of Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) has been realized
From February 14 to February 18, the food and beverage index rose or fell by 3.0%, ranking sixth in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 1.9pct. Among the sub industries, beer (6.5%), other wines (3.8%) and soft drinks (3.6%) are relatively leading. This week Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced the personnel changes of senior executives, the personnel adjustment was basically completed, and the smoothness of management decision-making was improved. Chairman Zeng served as the head of the group company and the joint stock company at the same time, which minimized the resistance of the decision-making level and improved the management efficiency. It is expected that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price support will become the focus of work in the next stage. In 2022, the company raised the comprehensive payment cost of dealers to 969 yuan by increasing the unplanned price and proportion. At present, the wholesale price is about 980 yuan, and the channel profit has narrowed. After the personnel is stable, the implementation of the company’s market control actions will be more timely and smooth, and the price support work is expected to be carried out smoothly. We are optimistic that the market reform action after the personnel stability of the company’s management will lead to the recovery of the rated price, so as to drive the enthusiasm of the channel and maintain the high brand value of the company’s products. At present, the company’s fundamentals and valuation are at the expected low point, and the subsequent marginal improvement is highly uncertain. It is suggested to focus on it. Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) restricted shares have been granted to the incentive object this week. So far, the equity incentive has been basically completed. After the grant price is locked with the market price, the annual amortization expense has been determined. At present, the company’s share price is at the bottom of the value range, and the short-term oversold is mainly due to more trading factors, and the growth logic remains unchanged. At present, the revenue volume of Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) is still small. The next three years will be a dividend period for the rapid expansion of the company. It is urgent to expand the revenue scale and compete in the global market. Technology driven new product R & D, new application expansion and market expansion require a certain amount of pre investment in R & D expenses. The company actively seizes the rapid development opportunity of synthetic biology in recent years and makes full preparations for three years later. Therefore, we believe that in the dividend period of the company’s expansion, the profit growth rate should basically keep pace with the revenue growth. Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) has global competitiveness in the field of Ara and DHA, and has leading advantages in product quality, process, cost and quality control system. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry will start a new round of formula upgrading to accelerate the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay. The long-term logic is smooth. At present, it is still a good choice for investment.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is more stable than that in the early stage. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in the fourth quarter, the goods were strictly controlled and the superimposed expenses were accelerated, resulting in a slowdown in revenue and a decline in net interest rate. In 2022, the company firmly pursues higher quality development. It is expected that the product structure will be significantly improved and the annual performance will maintain rapid growth. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : equity incentive is implemented. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry will start a new round of formula upgrading to accelerate the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
