Core view
“Mixed fighting” will bring marginal changes to covid-19 vaccine company
With the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy the sequential immunization of covid-19 vaccine. People over the age of 18 who have previously been vaccinated with Sinopharm and Kexing inactivated vaccine for 6 months can be given homologous booster needle (enhanced vaccination by the same technical route) or sequential booster (alternate vaccination of vaccines by different technical routes). Subsequent inactivation + recombinant protein and inactivation + adenovirus will become new options and will be extended to inactivation + mRNA in the future.
The pharmaceutical industry is cost-effective and will usher in a general rise
At present, the ttm-pe valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is 30 times, only 20% higher than the large bottom valuation at the end of 2018. Overvalued CXO, medical consumption and services have been callback more than half a year in the past, mostly due to technical adjustment caused by overvaluation. The logic of the global transfer of CXO market to China has not changed. The market’s concerns about the outward transfer of orders after the liberalization of the United States and Europe, China’s innovative drug policy and the periodicity of the industry have been reflected in the valuation, and there will be a rebound in blue chip stocks during the first quarter.
Covid-19 oral medicine still led the rise
Covid-19 oral medicine is the last puzzle of the epidemic and the most important event for the change of epidemic prevention policy. Nmpa conditionally approved Pfizer’s palovide import registration and listing, as well as the successive large orders of boten and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , becoming an important catalyst in the industry. According to the pricing of Pfizer palovide and mRNA vaccine, we should look forward to the listing of domestic covid-19 oral drugs and new vaccines. After a period of observation after the disappearance of Omicron, perhaps the second half of this year will usher in the opening opportunity.
Combined with the Fed’s table reduction stage, consumer healthcare is still the logic of going through the cycle
Traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods and consumer medical equipment are still the long-term direction we choose. Continue to be optimistic about the logic of traditional Chinese medicine. First, look for the brand value of “Maotai, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ” and other national confidential varieties of traditional Chinese medicine. Second, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules have a large market, and the policy of medical insurance payment and centralized procurement is gradually clear, which is a long-term growth track. Third, prescription drugs and medical insurance support will gradually become clear; Big pharma of traditional Chinese medicine has come out, and the medical needs of deep ploughing chemical medicine and biological medicine have not been met; In addition to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and other advantages, Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes are new growth areas of traditional Chinese medicine. Many exclusive varieties of companies will start a new round of growth.
Focus on the company:
Covid-19 oral drug related: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ; Vaccine related: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) ; Traditional Chinese medicine: brand resource type, Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) ; Big pharma, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) ; Formula particles, Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) and Guangxi Liuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603368) ; (category) OTC consumer goods, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Consumer medical care: Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Meinian Onehealth Healthcare Holdings Co.Ltd(002044) and Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) ; Large pharmaceutical enterprises: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) etc; Innovation, independent control and overseas industrial chain: Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) and Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) ; API: Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Anglikang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002940) etc; Other underestimated values: Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) and Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) .
Risk tip: uncertainty risk of China’s epidemic control policy, systemic risk caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike, etc
