Pay attention to the release of demand after the Winter Olympics and continue to be optimistic about the steady growth of coal stocks & transformation market
This week, the price of thermal coal was under pressure due to the price limit policy, and major coal enterprises began to issue documents to reduce the price to less than 900 yuan. As the local regulatory authorities in Shanxi and Shaanxi clearly implemented the price stabilization standard of the national development and Reform Commission this week, the price of origin also quickly moved closer to the price limit standard. Judging from the later stage, the low temperature, rain and snow weather will still support the daily consumption of the power plant in the short term, and the resumption of work in the downstream will accelerate. At the same time, the Winter Olympic Games is coming to an end, the power demand of some limited high energy consumption industries is expected to be released, and the overall coal consumption demand is still expected to be strong; The origin supply will also recover rapidly under the supply guarantee requirements of the national development and Reform Commission. The fundamentals may usher in phased strong supply and demand before the off-season, and the supply is relatively tight, supporting the coal price within the price limit. Therefore, we expect the policy driven decline in coal prices to be limited. In March, with the warming of temperature, the demand will weaken seasonally, but the supply side may be gradually tightened, and the safety production will return to the focus of policy. The high load production intensity may be unsustainable, the production intensity may match the demand, and the coal price in the off-season may transition smoothly. Judging from the coal stock market, the price stabilization of the national development and Reform Commission has disturbed the market, but it has long been a market consensus that there is a policy ceiling for the spot price of power coal, and the impact on the coal price of Changxie is limited. The fundamentals of gaochangxie coal enterprises remain stable. The investment logic of the coal sector may mainly focus on the two main lines of "stable growth" and "transformation": in terms of "stable growth", the infrastructure real estate chain benefits, which is good for the coal coke steel industry chain, and the peak of steel carbon can delay the demand for coking coal. In addition, the price of coking coal is determined by the market and the policy is not controlled, so the coking coal sector still has obvious elasticity; In terms of "transformation", under the background of carbon neutrality, the willingness of coal enterprises to increase production capacity has decreased significantly. In the future, coal prices will remain high and endogenous growth is insufficient, but epitaxial growth will become the mainstream. Coal enterprises are highly profitable and have the ability to make transformation, and the future opportunity period is within the next 5-10 years. At present, the undervalued characteristics of coal stocks are obvious. Under the current macro policy expectation of stable growth and wide credit, we believe that the coal sector has high allocation value and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Targets with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: this week, the power coal price gradually fell, and the place of origin accelerated the implementation of price limit standards
This week (February 14-february 18, 2022), the price of thermal coal was under pressure due to the price limit policy, and major coal enterprises began to issue documents to reduce the price to less than 900 yuan. As the local regulatory authorities in Shanxi and Shaanxi clearly implemented the price stabilization standard of the national development and Reform Commission this week, the price of origin also quickly moved closer to the price limit standard. From the perspective of fundamentals, in terms of demand, the pace of resumption of work in the lower reaches accelerated this week, and the industrial power load gradually recovered. At the same time, the low-temperature weather continued throughout the country, and the daily consumption of power plants picked up. Due to the wait-and-see of coal prices in the downstream, the procurement rhythm slows down, and the power plant mainly focuses on long-term cooperative procurement and consumption inventory; In terms of supply, the operating rate at the production end increased this week, and the production capacity gradually recovered and released. As a whole, the fundamentals are gradually showing phased strong supply and demand.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke remained stable this week and paid attention to the release of demand after the Winter Olympic Games
Coke: the coke price is stable this week. In terms of demand, the centralized replenishment of downstream steel mills before the festival has basically ended, the inventory has been at a historical high, the production restriction of steel mills in North China has been gradually implemented during the Winter Olympic Games, the operating rate is low, and the demand is weak as a whole; In terms of supply, the operating rate of coke enterprises declined slightly this week, but the demand is relatively weak and the short-term supply is loose. Coking coal: coking coal prices remained stable this week. On the demand side, coke steel enterprises increased their efforts to limit production, superimposed the impact of high downstream inventory, and the pace of coke coal procurement slowed down; On the supply side, after the festival, the producing areas have resumed production, and the supply has gradually returned to normal release. The short-term supply of coking coal fundamentals was slightly surplus, and the price of coking coal began to fall under pressure. At present, we need to pay attention to the demand release expectation brought by the relaxation of production restriction of steel enterprises after the Winter Olympic Games. The low operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace rebounded slightly this week. Considering that the macro-economic steady growth regulation is expected to drive the infrastructure and maintain the stability of real estate, the demand release of coal coke steel industry chain in the later stage is relatively optimistic, and coking coal is expected to tighten the supply fundamentals again.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
