Key investment points
This week (2022.2.14-2022.2.18) and year to date, the medical index rose by 4.85% and – 13.25% respectively, and the excess returns relative to the Shanghai index were 3.76% and – 7.40% respectively; This week, the share prices of medical services, medical devices and CXO were relatively strong, while the share prices of pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and biological products increased slightly; This week, Chengda Pharmaceutical (+ 85.92%), Hanyu Pharmaceutical (+ 40.77%), Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (+ 36.15%), and the decline was among the top Zhejiang Hisoar Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002099) (- 12.57%), Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) (- 10.87%), Guobang Pharma Ltd(605507) (- 9.36%). Performance characteristics of rise and fall: large market value companies with heavy institutional positions increased significantly, especially CXO and other sectors; Covid-19 treatment theme stocks performed actively, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and other stocks increased significantly; The performance of traditional Chinese medicine sector is differentiated, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and other active.
Multiple factors support the bottom of the pharmaceutical sector. From a fundamental point of view, the annual expenditure of medical insurance fund increases by about 10%, and the growth of the industry is guaranteed. Compared with the 12th Five Year Plan, the pharmaceutical industry in the 14th five year plan has been upgraded from people’s livelihood industry to people’s livelihood and national security strategic industry, and the pharmaceutical status has increased significantly; From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced rapid decline in recent three quarters, with its PE (TTM) valuation of about 28 times, returning to the bottom of 2018 again, which is at the bottom of nearly a decade, and its premium rate relative to the valuation of A-Shares is about 80%, which is also at the bottom; From the chip structure, the position of public funds in medicine is also at a low point in recent ten years.
FDA suspended a new clinical trial of agt-car, which was officially approved by FDA on March, and a new clinical trial of agt-car was suspended in the United States; GlaxoSmithKline announced that nmpa has approved benlysta for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis undergoing standard care; On February 18, Agios announced that the US FDA had approved the listing of its new drug pyrukynd to treat adult patients with pyruvate kinase deficiency and hemolytic anemia.
Specific allocation ideas: 1) in the field of traditional Chinese medicine: it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , and recommend Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; 2) CXO field of generic drugs: recommend Baicheng medicine and pay attention to Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) ; 3) Innovative drugs and industrial chain: Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc; 4) Biotech innovative drugs: Xinda biology, Yasheng medicine, etc. it is suggested to pay attention to kangfang biology; 5) API field: Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , it is recommended to pay attention to Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) ; 6) Vaccine field: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) etc; 7) Growth hormone field: Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) etc., it is suggested to pay attention to Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) ; 8) Medical service field: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) etc; 8) In the field of blood products: Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) ; 9) Medical and aesthetic fields: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) etc; 10) Medical device field: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc.
Risk tip: the progress of industrial transformation and internationalization is not as expected; R & D progress may be less than expected; The price reduction of drugs exceeded expectations; The medical insurance policy was further tightened.
