This week (2022.2.14 – 2022.2.18, the same below): the building materials sector (SW) rose and fell by + 3.36% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose and fell by + 2.19% and + 2.45% respectively, and the excess return was 1.17% and 0.91% respectively.
Fundamentals and high-frequency data of bulk building materials: (1) cement: the market price of high-standard cement in China this week was 514 yuan / ton, which was – 2 yuan / ton compared with last week and + 79 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. There was no increase in prices compared with last week; Regions where prices fell: Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region (- 3 yuan / ton), North China (- 4 yuan / ton) and Southwest (- 6 yuan / ton). This week, the average cement warehouse location of the national sample enterprises was 65.2%, the same as last week, and + 5.2pct compared with the same period in 2021. The average cement delivery rate (daily delivery rate / production capacity) of the national sample enterprises was 10.7%, which was + 7.7pct compared with last week and -2.2pct compared with the same period in 2021. (2) Glass: according to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of national float white glass is 2399 yuan / ton, which is + 228 yuan / ton compared with last week and + 254 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 38.1 million heavy boxes, compared with – 5.32 million heavy boxes last week and + 4.46 million heavy boxes in the same period in 2021. (3) Glass fiber: the median turnover of alkali free 2400tex direct yarn was 6150 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and + 375 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021.
Zhou’s view: reducing the down payment was first introduced in Heze, Ganzhou and other places, and the third and fourth tier real estate ushered in a new round of upgrading and easing policies. After the financial data in January confirmed the inflection point of wide currency, the credit expansion of the real estate chain may come in one to two quarters, and leading enterprises often take the lead in entering the expansion cycle. In the future, in addition to the space for continuous repair of the municipal infrastructure industrial chain, those leading companies in the growing real estate post industrial chain are also the elastic protagonists of wide credit. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as the right signal. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , as well as the varieties of building materials such as cement and pipes in the early and medium term.
In terms of bulk building materials: under the force of fiscal policy, the growth rate of infrastructure rebounded, and the policies of guaranteed housing and guaranteed delivery housing stabilized the expectation of real estate investment. Based on the extension of peak staggering and the strengthening of industry self-discipline, we estimate that the supply capacity of the industry after eliminating peak staggering will decrease by 0.1% year-on-year in 2022. With the support of stable investment on demand, the cement boom can still remain high. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 9% in 2021 makes the current price earnings ratio of 6 ~ 7 times have room for repair. In the short term, with the start of downstream demand, some areas began to push up, and the price elasticity is still expected in the peak season under the high capacity utilization rate of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain, and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) benefiting from the integration of northern market and great business elasticity in the medium and long term.
Decoration and building materials: steady growth is expected to boost demand, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair under the relaxation of real estate chain policies and funds. Recently, the central government mentioned that the new special debt focuses on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. The real estate sector has gradually released loose signals. Previously, according to the financial Associated Press, the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued recently, and the supervision of pre-sale funds is expected to be improved. Last week, Heze, Ganzhou and other places began to reduce the down payment ratio. We expect that the financing side of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to continue to relax. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantage or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right. Focus on Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu, Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, and the policy concentration exceeded expectations.
