Weekly observation: after the Spring Festival, the losses of raw pigs have deepened, and they continue to be optimistic about the reversal of Q3 pig prices
As of February 18, the national average sales price of pigs was 12.5 yuan / kg, the average sales price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.65 yuan / kg, and the loss of self breeding pigs in the industry was reported as – 495 yuan / head. If the average cost of the industry is 15.5 yuan / kg and the average weight of fattening pigs in the industry is 133 kg / head, the loss range of the industry will also reach 400 yuan / head. After the year, the pig price fell rapidly. In addition, affected by the rising price of feed raw materials and the increase of ex factory price of feed enterprises, the loss at the breeding end increased rapidly, and the “secondary loss” of the industry entered the deep-water area.
In the downward period of the cycle, the decline of pig prices usually accelerates after years. Looking back on the four cycles since 2006, pig prices often fell rapidly after the downward phase of the cycle and continued to the second quarter of each year. There are two main reasons for this trend. On the one hand, there is usually an overall oversupply in the downward period of pig prices. On the other hand, the precipitous decline in pork consumption demand after two years has exacerbated the mismatch between supply and demand. The precipice of consumption after the Spring Festival will also have an impact on the pig price in the upward stage and high stage of the cycle, which may slow down the rising rhythm of pig price in the upward stage; At the high stage of pig price, it is possible to catalyze the reversal and downward movement of pig price or the temporary downward adjustment of pig price.
Zhou’s view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading breeding cost; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. Focus on the recommendation of China’s leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales will continue to benefit from the high stock of pigs and poultry. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (2.14-2.18): Agriculture underperformed the market by 1.83 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80%, while the agricultural index fell 1.02%, underperforming the market by 1.83 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and forestry sector led the rise, with an increase of 4.18%. In terms of individual stocks, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 15.96%), jiawo shares (+ 8.52%) and Jilin Quanyangquan Co.Ltd(600189) (+ 6.61%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (2.14-2.18): the prices of pigs and piglets rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on February 18, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.37 yuan / kg, up from + 0.24 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 23.97 yuan / kg, up from last Friday + 0.09 yuan / kg; The average price of white striped meat was 16.26 yuan / kg, down from -1.13 yuan / kg last Friday. Today, the price ratio of pig feed is 3.41:1. According to wind data, on February 18, the average profit of self breeding head was -495.14 yuan / head, compared with -158.44 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased pig head is -44.149 yuan / pig head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.29/feather, with a month on month ratio of – 29.12%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.83 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of – 2.00%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 0.13 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of -0.28 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
