In January, the sales volume of pigs of listed pig enterprises increased by% month on month. In January, the total sales volume of pigs of listed breeding enterprises in China was about 5.7362 million (excluding muyuan), which was + 10.66% month on month compared with December. Except Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) pig sales decreased month on month, others maintained a growth trend, with a month on month increase of 4% – 33%; Among them, Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , COFCO jiajiakang, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) are mainly higher than 20% month on month. Benefiting from the advantages of capital and platform, the head breeding enterprises as a whole are in a steady growth state. According to the statistics of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of pigs sold nationwide in January was + 9.4% month on month and + 23.6% year-on-year. Compared with the industry data, the number of listed breeding enterprises increased by 1.26pct, and the industry concentration showed an upward trend.
In January, the pig price fell into the loss range, and the average selling weight remained low. 1) the pig price continued to decline, and the average selling weight remained low. The average price of pigs in the industry in January of 22 was 14.62 yuan / kg, down from – 13.08% in December. The average price of pigs of listed breeding enterprises in January was 13.36 yuan / kg, which was about 8.6% lower than the average price of the industry, and the breeding business was in the process of loss. In terms of the average weight of listed breeding enterprises, the average weight of listed breeding enterprises increased or decreased by half in January, which was at a low level in the cycle as a whole, and the corresponding average value was about 113.31kg (Mom – 0.77%). According to the statistics of Yongyi data, the average weight of slaughter in January was about 119.8kg. In contrast, the weight of listed breeding enterprises is lower than the industry level. 2) The breeding industry has entered a state of loss again. In January 22, the average monthly loss of self breeding pig breeding profit was about 249.28 yuan / head, which changed from a small profit of 42.2 yuan / head in December to a loss. Considering the current downward trend of pig price, we expect the average price to continue to decline in February, and the industry will still be at a loss. According to the latest statistics, the weekly loss of self breeding fell to 495.14 yuan / head on February 18, entering the extremely deep loss in September 21 again. At the same time, the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding also entered a significant loss state (- 149.8 yuan / head).
In January, the stock of fertile sows was – 0.9% month on month, and the cumulative production capacity was reduced by 6%. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the stock of fertile sows in China was about 42.9 million in January, with a month on month ratio of – 0.9%, and the production capacity continued to be reduced. Since the high point in June 21, China has removed about 2.74 million fertile sows, an increase of 6%. At present, one of the differences in the market is the slowdown of capacity removal (including the assumption of efficiency improvement), and the bottom of the industry will be elongated. In view of this difference, we believe that starting from the index of breeding profit, it represents whether the industry makes money or not. At present, pig breeding has entered the loss range again. For breeding enterprises / farmers, it is rapidly consuming their own cash flow. In the state of continuous deep loss, the inference of bottom elongation means that farmers are able and willing to stick to the state of loss, but in reality, large losses without the decline of overall production capacity is contrary to our common sense (small samples do not represent the overall situation). Generally speaking, we believe that in the loss range, the industry production capacity probability is gradually cleared, and the industry expected margin is better.
Investment suggestions for the judgment of the future trend of the pig cycle, we always believe that it can be judged based on the core indicators, and there is no need to be too complicated. We issued an in-depth interpretation report on the pig cycle in late October of 21, proposing that the performance loss period is the best time point for the layout of breeding stocks, and the second best time point is the quarter before the second bottom, namely 22q1. The new round of pig cycle has experienced the bottom of October – rebound – continued downward trend, and the production capacity continues to be cleared. It is experiencing a trough period of the industry, with a significant margin of safety, and strong certainty of future expectation. For breeding enterprises, they have worked hard to reduce costs and increase efficiency in 22 years, maintain a certain growth in marketing, and safely get through the bottom area. At the investment level, the pig cycle is a sector market, which can be actively concerned. The average head market value is still at a historically low level, with significant potential space. We suggest focusing on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) .
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of epidemic disease; The risk that the pig price is lower than expected.
