Core view
Weekly performance of sectors: this week (2022 / 2 / 14-2022 / 2 / 18), the Yangtze River machinery and equipment index rose by 1.6%. The top five sectors were: environmental protection equipment / machine tools / metallurgical and chemical equipment / printing and packaging machinery / agricultural machinery, with fluctuations of 7.2% / 5.9% / 5.8% / 4.4% / 3.5% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of the machinery sector is 35x, of which the highest valuation is lithium battery equipment (91.5x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (15.3x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 22.04%;
The highest number of {839} shares and {83839} shares in the week was {68029};
Industry highlights: the operating rate of various construction machinery in China remained high in January. “China Central Television financial excavator index” shows that the operating rates of all kinds of construction machinery in China remained high in January 2022. Among them, the data of front crane, excavator, truck crane, crawler crane, mixer truck and pump truck are more than 50%.
Investment proposal and investment object
The lowest Duc in 8 years: due to geopolitical disturbance this week, the global oil price fluctuated, but from the perspective of fundamentals, the prosperity of oil service and equipment is still rising. On the one hand, judging from the difference in global crude oil supply, Q4 demand in 21 years is still 1.95 million barrels / day higher than supply. On the other hand, the US Duc reached an 8-year low, indicating that the industry will continue to recover. Drilling and well completion are two important parts of oil service. Drilling involves drilling rig, and well completion involves perforation and fracturing. The two are completed step by step, so the inventory of drilled and uncompleted Duc is formed. If we regard commercial crude oil inventory as a forward-looking indicator of oil price, then the analogy of Duc inventory is a forward-looking indicator of oil service industry. In January 22, the Duc of the United States reached 4466, 52% of that in January 20, reaching the lowest level since January 2014. Among them, the Duc of Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford in the main oil producing areas reached 50%, 52% and 53% of that in January 20. Since the oil price fluctuation caused by the epidemic in the past 20 years, the number of drilling rigs in the world has gradually recovered. However, at present, the number of drilling rigs in the world is 1632, which is still lower than 2073 at the beginning of the 20th year. At present, there are 645 drilling rigs in the United States, which is also lower than 805 at the end of the 19th year, reflecting the downturn of new drilling rigs; From the perspective of drilling and completion in the United States, the number of well completion has been higher than that of drilling since July 20. A similar situation occurred in the last round from February to November of 2016, and then there was an increase in capital expenditure in the market. At present, the U.S. Duc has reached the lowest level in 14 years, reflecting that the oil service market is in a relatively extreme state. We believe that the oil service market is expected to usher in a considerable recovery.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031, not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157, bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100, not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984, not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) (603638, not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) (603298, Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) (600761, Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) (000837, Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (300415, Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747, Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607, Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066, not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) (603611, not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039, not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450, not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724, not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) (002353, not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (601717, not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) (600582, not rated), Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) (688377, not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766, not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) (000976, not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) (300572, Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012, Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) (603337, Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) (603583, Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) (605288, Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) (603901, Unrated).
Risk tips
The development of the epidemic is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, the infrastructure investment is less than expected, the price of raw materials rises, and the global trade conflict intensifies
