Core view
Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, the lighting and electrician sector performed relatively strongly. The CSI 300 index rose 1.08% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the lighting and electrical sector rose 1.92% this week, outperforming the market by 0.84pct. The sectors of white appliances, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , furniture, black appliances, kitchen appliances and small appliances fell 1.68%, 1.49%, 1.37%, 1.05%, 0.71% and 0.65% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 2.76pct, 2.57pct, 2.46pct, 2.14pct and 1.79pct respectively 1.73pct。
Domestic sales: in January, the online retail sales of clean appliances continued to grow year-on-year. (1) Price of upstream raw materials: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose, the price of copper and stainless steel rose, the price of aluminum fell, and the price trend of plastic raw materials differentiated. (2) China's real estate demand: in December 2021, the year-on-year negative growth rate of new house sales area expanded, and the year-on-year positive growth rate of completed area narrowed; In January 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year in December 2021 and 10.2% year-on-year in December 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in January 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China's top 10 cities was 39200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistics of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses in China was about 299000 units in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in December 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year. In terms of breakdown categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, in January 2022, the online retail sales of dishwashers and integrated stoves decreased by 6.1% and 8.7% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen power and kitchen small appliances decreased by 9.3% and 13.6% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased by 7.1% and 20.5% respectively year-on-year. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in January 2022, the sales of key brands of integrated stoves and small kitchen appliances continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the sales of key brands of clean appliances fluctuated year-on-year.
Export: in January, the construction volume of new private houses in the United States continued to increase year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in December 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 7% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In January 2022, the number of new construction projects increased by 1% year-on-year and continued to grow positively. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 4%), and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained a year-on-year positive growth (18%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric ovens, toasters, electric frying pans and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of range hoods and other categories decreased.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and exports in the post real estate cycle continues to grow rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is suggested to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
