Focus this week: Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) , Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Jilin Carbon Valley
Core view of this week: since the beginning of the year, the pressure for steady growth has increased, and the intensity of infrastructure investment is expected to increase. We believe that relatively weak public utilities construction is expected to become a hot spot for investment, including “double carbon” related nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, water network and smart water construction, oil and gas pipeline network construction, which will bring equipment investment demand.
Theme of this week: review and Prospect of wind power
Review in 2021: Jiangsu and Guangdong account for a high proportion of grid connected units, and the average price of units reaches 7125 yuan / kW. According to the publicly available statistical data (daily wind power, Polaris wind power grid, mining and bidding network, etc.), the installed capacity of sea wind connected to the national grid in 2021 was 16.6gw, of which Jiangsu (6.42gw, accounting for 39%), Guangdong (4.95gw, accounting for 30%), Fujian (1.90gw, accounting for 11%) and Zhejiang (1.69gw, accounting for 10%). From the unit investment of grid connected projects, the average value is 18.723 billion yuan / GW, the highest is 26.609 billion yuan / GW, and the lowest is 15.884 billion yuan / GW. According to the sample data, the average water depth of the new sea breeze project in 2021 is 44m, 6m and 20m respectively; From the perspective of unit price, the highest average price of the unit is 11205 yuan / kW, the lowest is 3662 yuan / kW, and the average is 7125 yuan / kW.
2022 forecast: 5.3-8.8gw for grid connection and 9.3-13.2gw for bidding. According to the statistics of daily wind power, Polaris power network and procurement and bidding network, the installed capacity of China’s grid connected offshore wind may be 5.3-8.8gw in 2022, including: ① planned grid connected projects before the end of 2022; ② Projects that are planned to be connected to the grid before the end of 2021 but have not found grid connection information are expected to be connected to the grid in 2022. ① In + ②, as of February 19, 2022, about 3.89gw of projects have won the bid, and 1.41gw of projects have been tendered but not won the bid, with a total of 5.3gw. This scale can be used as a conservative prediction of the grid connection scale in 2022. 2) It is estimated that the bidding installed capacity will be about 9.2gw-13.2gw in 2022, including: ① the scale of projects that have won the bid since 2022 is 2.2gw; ② The total number of projects that have been announced for bidding but have not won the bid is 3.51gw. Considering that the bidding time is generally short, the bidding rate of these projects will be completed in 2022; ③ It is estimated that the grid connection will be completed in 2022, and about 3.5gW of projects that have not yet been tendered are also expected to be tendered; ④ It is planned to be connected to the grid in 2023, but the bidding scale is about 3.95gw, and some bidding is expected to be completed in 2022. Only considering that ① + ② + ③ is 9.3gw in total (conservative prediction), plus ④ is 13.2gw (neutral optimistic prediction). 3) The fan is reduced to 3400 yuan / kW, and the wind area with high utilization hours has been economical. Assuming that the fan price is reduced to 3400 yuan / kW and the non unit cost remains unchanged, the complete cost of sea breeze in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is reduced to about 1.14/1.30/1.32/12100 yuan. From this price, in the wind area with high utilization hours (2800h in Jiangsu, more than 3000h in Guangdong, 3200h in Fujian and 2800h in Zhejiang), under the condition of parity price, The achievable IR equity is approximately or more than 7% (economical). With other factors unchanged, if IRR equity is ≥ 7% in the case of low utilization, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang need to reduce the current full cost to 10.2 yuan / W, 9.1 yuan / W, 10.6 yuan / W and 7.3 yuan / W, which still needs to be reduced by 10%, 30%, 20% and 40% compared with the current one.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with high industrial structure of Haifeng parts and components, such as Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) in the main shaft link and Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) in the flange link.
Risk tips: 1) sea breeze bidding is lower than expected; 2) The construction progress of Haifeng is lower than expected.
