Key investment points
The real estate policy continued to be loose and optimistic about the bottom recovery of data, driving the performance of the home sector
The valuation of the home sector is highly related to real estate policies and sales data. From the historical recovery, the subsequent catalytic policies are expected to continue to increase. From the perspective of PE, there is a high correlation between the valuation of the home sector and the growth rate of real estate sales; From the perspective of policy, the tightening / easing policy is often introduced when the real estate sales are overheated / too cold, and the policy direction has a certain sustainability. Since October 21, supportive policies such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction have been launched one after another, and the capital chain of housing loan and real estate developers has begun to relax. With the implementation of supporting policies one after another, real estate sales are expected to bottom out, and loans and local auction in January have been marginally better. We believe that the deregulation of the real estate sector in 2022 is still the main theme, and the data level will also verify the continuous improvement while continuously launching new stimulus policies, support the valuation system and performance release of the home sector, and recommend the layout of home.
Home furnishing leaders significantly outperform the industry and grow α Gradually highlight
The growth of leading enterprises leads the industry, α Attribute highlighting. It was found that when the growth rate of zero data of furniture society went down, the growth rate of domestic sales of oupai, gujia, Minhua and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) was higher than that of zero data of furniture society, reflecting that the leading enterprises expanded market share against the trend, the liquidation of small enterprises in the industry accelerated, and the industry concentration continued to improve. Analyze the continuous growth of customized leaders α Source: excellent dealer team quality & service ability, fine channel management and multi category expansion ability. Analyze the continuous growth of software leaders α Source: the focus of product power, the touch of channels and the brand moat formed under strong marketing investment.
Investment advice
Maintain the key recommendations for the home sector: (1) Baima Longtou Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , multi-dimensional construction of leading advantages, strong growth certainty and smooth share promotion logic. (2) The investment opportunities of elastic targets with high growth and low value are most recommended to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year PE is 17x), and pay attention to Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (22-year PE is 13X), Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (equity incentive plan has high growth, 22-year PE is 18x).
Risk tips
The industry competition intensifies, the real estate policy is tightened again, and the cost of raw materials rises sharply.
