Main points:
In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China continued to grow at a high rate, and the impact of subsidy decline became weaker. The market was a new driving force. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid January 2022 was 452000 and 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, a month on month decrease of 12.6% and 18.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17%, of which the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.2%. Sales continued to grow at a high speed for 21 years, showing its resilience and trend in the traditional off-season of automobiles around the Spring Festival. On the one hand, it can gradually eliminate the market’s concerns about orders and delivery at the beginning of the year due to the decline of subsidies. On the other hand, it can also show that the price rise of lithium batteries in the middle and upper reaches has a limited impact on vehicle demand.
Upstream and downstream enterprises cooperate with local governments to establish lithium battery industry chain clusters and lock in complementary cooperation between upstream and downstream resources Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) . Huayou holdings signed the cooperation agreement for the whole industry chain project of new energy batteries with Yuxi government of Yunnan Province to establish a joint venture to carry out mineral resource development, production and processing. By the end of 2025, it will invest 51.7 billion yuan to build new energy batteries Diaphragm, iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, copper foil and other supporting projects. Large amount of project investment shows that the lithium battery industry is still in a high momentum; On the one hand, local governments rely on mineral resources and policy dividends to attract the landing of lithium battery industry chain and maximize investment attraction; On the other hand, mineral resources are still the source of the industrial chain. Supply competition is fierce. Upstream and downstream cooperation is conducive to give full play to the advantages of all parties, reduce the overall cost, and ensure supply and lock in demand. It is recommended to arrange the head battery factory; The pattern is clear and the advantages are obvious. The supply and demand is still tight in the midstream link.
Yabao price reveals the cost of the head battery factory, the profit of the industrial chain moves upward, the demand guidelines are raised, and the supply contradiction is difficult to solve. Based on Yabao performance announcement and exchange 1) most orders are implemented according to the international lithium price and the long-term association price, which is far lower than the current spot price in the Chinese market, reflecting that the lithium cost of the head battery factory and the vehicle factory still has advantages, However, the gradual upward movement also shows that the profit of the industrial chain has moved upward. 2) the construction cost and capital expenditure of mine and smelter projects have exceeded the expectation, and are gradually put into operation and released, but the output growth rate is expected to be lower than the demand growth rate, indicating that it is difficult to develop lithium resources and the short-term and medium-term shortage is difficult to solve. 3) the global lithium demand in 2025 will be greatly increased to 1.5 million tons of LCE, 30% higher than the previous guidance, It will reach 3 million tons of LCE in 2030, and the CAGR will reach 25% in ten years, showing the sustainability of the rapid growth of industry demand. The contradiction between lithium concentrate supply and demand or the expected high price of lithium concentrate in the downstream market will be gradually reversed, and the lithium concentrate supply and demand will continue to rise, which will gradually aggravate the contradiction between lithium supply and demand in the downstream market.
Investment suggestions: three main lines: first, capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Three midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the company’s profit forecast and rating:
