Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: infrastructure has become the primary focus of current economic stabilization. The work reports of provincial and municipal governments have made clear the specific objectives of traditional infrastructure such as transportation construction, water conservancy projects and urban pipe network construction, which support the demand for cement. At the same time, the continuously promoted energy conservation and carbon reduction policy is conducive to promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimizing the supply pattern of the industry and improving the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: under the current inventory pressure of tank kiln factory, the price adjustment is not expected to be large, and the inventory of large medium and long-term factories is planned to increase. During the week, the prices of China’s major electronic yarn pool kilns stabilized after adjustment, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream market was ok, mostly just in need of replenishment. In the later stage, it is expected that the demand may improve, coupled with cost support, the short-term market is temporarily stable. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: infrastructure has become the primary focus of current economic stabilization. The work reports of provincial and municipal governments have made clear the specific objectives of traditional infrastructure such as transportation construction, water conservancy projects and urban pipe network construction, which support the demand for cement. In addition, the policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction has been continuously promoted. The guidelines for the implementation of the upgrading system of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry clearly requires that by 2025, the proportion of clinker production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the cement industry will reach 30%, and the clinker production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will be basically cleared. The effect of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industry is remarkable, and the ability of green and low-carbon development will be greatly enhanced. The continuously promoted energy conservation and carbon reduction policy is conducive to promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimizing the supply pattern of the industry and improving the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Fundamentals: after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, within expectations. On the one hand, the demand performance was weak in the fourth quarter of last year, the return of funds from the mixing plant was poor, and the enthusiasm for construction was low; On the other hand, the government has increased the investment in infrastructure, which reflects the lag in the pull of cement demand. The cement demand in the opening market is mainly continuous projects. In addition, the point recurrence of the epidemic also restricts the return of workers in some areas. According to comprehensive judgment, the downstream demand will increase significantly at the end of February and early March, and the market will fully recover in the middle and early March. At present, the regional leaders of cement Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) are recommended, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: alkali free tank kiln roving has maintained a stable market in the near future, and there is still an expectation of rise in the medium and long term. In addition, due to the limited demand of Northern Enterprises in the near future, the overall market demand of some kilns still needs to be restored. Under the current inventory pressure of pond kiln factory, the price adjustment is not expected to be large, and the inventory of large factories in the medium and long term is planned to rise. During the week, the prices of China’s major electronic yarn pool kilns stabilized after adjustment, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream market was ok, mostly just in need of replenishment. In the later stage, it is expected that the demand may improve, coupled with cost support, the short-term market is temporarily stable. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the future demand for wind power will be better. The addition and replacement of new energy vehicles and wind power provide support for the demand for glass fiber. In addition, from the supply side, the addition of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: the market price of float glass rose significantly this week, the overall trading was good, and the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to pick up the goods was ok, but most of them were mainly prepared in advance, and the inventory of the original film factory was significantly reduced. During the week, the price of the original film rose to a high level, and the delivery of goods in the middle and lower reaches slowed down near the weekend. In addition, the overall operating rate of deep processing at this stage is low, and the social inventory still needs time to digest. In the short term, the price rise of the original film in most regions will stabilize. Supply: ignition and cold repair plans are available for some production lines this month, but the overall production capacity remains high. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory of float factory is reduced rapidly, the delivery of goods in the middle and lower reaches is more active, and the social inventory needs to be digested in the later stage. Demand: Recently, downstream processing plants have been started and replenished, but the overall operating rate is low, and some regional processing plants have not been effectively started. In the medium and long term, the change of order increment of downstream processing plants will become a key factor. Cost: soda ash prices are still expected to rise further, and the production cost of float glass continues to rise slightly. However, at present, the price of the original film is high, the overall profit is considerable, and the impact of cost factors is limited. Focus on industry leaders Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with cost advantages, and focus on Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of “one body and two wings” of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
