Demand for extreme energy density increased by 4.5 μ M extremely thin lithium copper foil application. Due to the requirements of downstream battery manufacturers for high energy density and cost reduction, following 6 μ M after lithium copper foil, 4.5 μ M lithium battery copper foil is expected to become one of the mainstream products in the future. At present, some products of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) head power battery enterprises have begun to be applied. 4.5 μ M lithium copper foil.
Demand: from 2021 to 23, the compound growth rate of global demand for lithium battery copper foil is expected to reach 29%. New energy vehicle power battery is the terminal field with the largest demand for lithium battery, accounting for 72%, followed by 3C digital and lithium battery for energy storage. We predict that the global demand for lithium batteries from 2021 to 2023 may reach 474.3, 709.5 and 941.5gwh respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 51%. We assume that: (1) China will be 4.5% from 2021 to 2023 μ The overall permeability of M copper foil increased from 9% to 35%, 6 μ M the overall permeability of lithium copper foil will be reduced from 57% to 39%; (2) Overseas 6 μ M the overall permeability of lithium battery copper foil will increase from 11% to 34%, while 4.5% μ The overall permeability of M will increase from 0% to 8%. From 2021 to 2023, the global demand for lithium battery copper foil is expected to reach 501400 tons, 678200 tons and 839600 tons respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 29%.
Supply: from 2021 to 2023, the compound growth rate of global lithium battery copper foil production capacity is expected to reach 28%, and the overall competition pattern will be optimized. By the end of 2021, the global total capacity of lithium copper foil was about 510000 tons. The compound annual growth rate of the global total capacity of lithium copper foil from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 28%. Chinese mainland and South Korea accounted for 90% of the total capacity, and the 2021-2023 year's new capacity came from the two regions. China's Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Defoe technology and Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) are the biggest variables. According to the capacity planning, from 2021 to 2023, the Cr4 of the global lithium battery copper foil industry will increase from 34% to about 38%, and the CR8 will increase from 50% to about 60%. With the large-scale capacity planning and construction of China's leading enterprises, the overall competition pattern of global and Chinese lithium battery copper foil will be optimized from 2021 to 2023.
Supply and demand balance: it is estimated that April 5, 2022-2023 μ M the supply and demand pattern of lithium battery copper foil will be significantly better than that of the industry as a whole. From 2021 to 2023, the global new capacity of lithium battery copper foil is 82700 tons / year, 183400 tons / year and 197500 tons / year respectively. Assuming that the utilization rate of new capacity is 70%, the excess supply of global new lithium battery copper foil is expected to be - 13.7% and - 3.3% from 2022 to 2023, indicating that the overall supply pattern of the industry will be slightly improved. 4.5% of the new capacity of 12 leading manufacturers μ M when lithium copper foil accounts for 30% - 50%, it will add 4.5% in 2022 μ M the excess supply of lithium battery copper foil is expected to be - 46.6% to - 67.9%, and - 33.3% to - 60.0% in 2023, accounting for 4.5% in the world μ M the supply and demand pattern of lithium battery copper foil will continue to improve, and is significantly better than the overall market.
\u3000\u30004.5 μ M the barrier of lithium battery copper foil is clear, and the industry leader is expected to give priority to occupying the market. The production of very thin lithium copper foil has high barriers. (1) Technical barriers: the technological requirements are extremely high, and know how needs the accumulation of long-term experience; (2) Certification barrier: it usually takes about 6-12 months for small batch supply to obtain supplier certification. Lithium copper foil leading enterprises are easier to release production capacity and achieve sales, or will give priority to occupy 4.5% μ M lithium battery copper foil market.
Investment proposal and investment object
With 4.5 μ M lithium battery copper foil penetration rate will continue to increase, 4.5% from 2022 to 2023 μ M the supply and demand pattern of lithium copper foil will continue to improve. Therefore, lithium copper foil, especially 4.5 μ The high-performance and extremely thin copper foil industry represented by M may have medium and long-term growth. Due to the high technical barriers and certification barriers in the production of extremely thin lithium copper foil, it is easier for leading enterprises of lithium copper foil to release production capacity and achieve sales volume, or will give priority to occupy 4.5% μ M lithium battery copper foil market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in China's lithium battery copper foil industry, such as Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed significantly. Major changes have taken place in the policies of China and overseas new energy vehicles and energy storage industries. The price of industrial metal copper fluctuated sharply. Changes in capacity expansion plans of some enterprises, 4.5 μ M copper foil permeability is lower than expected, which will affect the calculation results in this paper.
