In January, automobile production and sales increased slightly year-on-year, and the situation was generally stable
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the car sales volume in 2022 / 1 increased from + 0.9% year-on-year to – 9.2% month on month to 2.531 million; Among them, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by + 6.7% year-on-year / month on month – 9.7% to 2.186 million, and the wholesale sales of commercial vehicles increased by – 25.0% year-on-year / month on month – 5.5% to 344000. The output of automobiles increased by + 1.4% / 16.7% month on month to 2.422 million, of which the output of passenger cars increased by + 8.7% / 17.8% month on month to 2.077 million, and the output of commercial vehicles increased by – 28.0% / 9.3% month on month to 345000.
The inventory was removed well in January, and the overall manufacturer’s inventory decreased at the end of the month
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the inventory of automobile manufacturers at the end of January was – 12.6% to 741000 compared with the beginning of the month. Among them, the storage of passenger garages was – 20.5% to 438000 compared with the beginning of the month, and the storage of commercial garages was + 2.2% to 303000 compared with the beginning of the month. In January, the inventory early warning index of auto dealers was – 1.8pct/qoq + 5.4pct to 58.3%. The inventory early warning index approached the boom and bust line and was in the recession range. In January, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was – 4.6% year-on-year / month on month + 2.1% to 1.46. The inventory level picked up, but it was still below the warning line.
In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a year-on-year high-speed growth, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.2%
In 2022 / 1, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased by + 133.2% year-on-year / chain – 12.6% to 452000, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by + 135.8% year-on-year / chain – 18.6% to 431000, with a penetration rate of 17.0%. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased from + 138.7% year-on-year to 419000, with a penetration rate of 19.2%. Among them, the sales of pure electric / plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in China were 335000 / 85000 respectively. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles increased from + 66.6% year-on-year to 12000 vehicles month on month, and the penetration rate was only 3.5%. Among them, the sales of pure electric / plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles in China were 12000 / 0400 respectively.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. It is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limit price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to maintain stability and steadily release new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid or market segments with strong certainty of sales growth, it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors affecting the climbing. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e will be 5-5.5 million, and we are optimistic about car companies with strong model cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear and clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time; Fuyao recommended spare parts.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Industry growth is less than expected; Disturbance of macroeconomic factors; Negative impact of new energy vehicle policy change; Technology renewal risk; The risk of overcapacity caused by intensified market competition. Profit forecast and valuation table of key companies
