The housing loan policy was relaxed, and the minimum down payment ratio of the first house in some cities fell to] 20%. Recently, the four major banks in Heze City, Shandong Province Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) lowered the down payment ratio of individual housing loans in the city. The down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” buyers decreased from the previous lowest 30% to the lowest 20%. According to whether there is a house under the name, whether there is a housing loan record and whether the loan record is settled, the minimum down payment ratio is also divided into 25%, 30% and 40%. At the same time, the loan interest rates of the first and second homes were reduced to 5.6% and 5.95% respectively from 5.95% and 6.14% at the end of last year. In addition to Heze, some cities across the country have quietly reduced the interest rate and down payment ratio of the first house loan. Before and after the Spring Festival, many banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi have reduced the down payment ratio of the first house loan to 20%. According to industry sources, all cities in this round of adjustment are non “purchase restriction” cities, which are jointly decided by the local housing and financial functional departments according to the principle of implementing policies according to the city.
The reduction of the down payment ratio releases a positive signal, and more cities are expected to follow up in the future. Generally, the lowest down payment ratio of housing loans in China is maintained at 30%. In the past 15 years, the down payment ratio has been reduced to 20% only twice, respectively during the financial crisis in 2008 and the high inventory of commercial housing in 2014. We believe that the reduction of the down payment ratio in Heze releases a relatively clear positive signal, which can reflect the relaxation trend of the policy to a certain extent. It is expected that more cities will adopt house purchase support policies in the future. Judging from the current market decline, low-energy cities have weak sales, greater inventory pressure, stronger willingness to relax, and greater implementation is expected.
In January, the increment of social financing scale reached 6.17 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing reached a record high. By the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 320.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; Among them, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 195.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. In terms of increment, the increment of social financing scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 981.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. The social finance data in January showed a bright performance, and the total data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the continuous regulation effect of China’s counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies.
The supervision of pre-sale funds of real estate enterprises may usher in unified regulations, and the current situation of tight capital flow of real estate enterprises is expected to be alleviated. It is reported that the national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been formulated and issued recently. The newly formulated and issued Management Measures specify that the supervision amount of pre-sale funds is “key quota management”, which is approved by the municipal and county-level urban and rural construction departments according to the project cost contract, which can ensure the capital amount required for the completion of the project. When the funds in the account reach the supervision amount, The funds exceeding the quota can be withdrawn and used freely by real estate enterprises, which are expected to obtain more liquidity. Previously, various regions independently issued the implementation rules for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds. The implementation in some cities was too strict, and there was room for correction. The introduction of the new measures is expected to improve the situation.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Oct a, China Resources Land, Longhu group, Vanke A, Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Baolong business, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) ; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk
