Recently, many parties have released extreme signals of capital area, and the liquidity situation of the real estate industry has been further alleviated
Don’t misread the “real estate finance daily” on January 18. The paper points out that “excessive financialization” has appeared in the real estate industry, and the current “de financialization” is a correction to the previous excessive financialization. Its ultimate purpose is to reduce the operating leverage ratio of real estate enterprises to a reasonable level; Under the positioning of “housing, housing and non speculation”, we should keep the growth rate of real estate loans stable and orderly, but we should achieve “holding pressure” in structure, and accurately and effectively meet the reasonable and rigid financing needs of real estate enterprises and buyers.
2) on February 17, the industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank in Heze City, Shandong Province lowered the down payment ratio of individual house purchase loans within the “policy framework of the central bank”. The “no house, no loan” can enjoy a minimum down payment ratio of 20% when subscribing for ordinary houses. (the “policy framework of the central bank”: the central bank and the CBRC jointly issued a notice in 2016 that in cities that do not implement the “purchase restriction” measures, the minimum down payment proportion of commercial individual housing loans for households to purchase ordinary housing for the first time is 25% in principle, and all localities can float down by 5 percentage points. For details, see the “non purchase restriction” report 20200226 Urban mortgage or credit extension promotion channel – Everbright real estate industry dynamic tracking report).
3) on February 17, the securities times network issued a document saying that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) plans to issue M & a theme bonds for real estate projects in the near future, raising no less than 10 billion yuan. Following Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , Guangdong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , another bank plans to provide financing support for the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises. So far, a number of banks have provided financial support for project acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises, which is close to 60 billion yuan.
4) on February 10, the financial Associated Press reported that the national measures for the supervision and management of commercial housing pre-sale funds had been formulated and promulgated recently. The Management Measures specify that the pre-sale fund quota supervision is “key quota supervision”. When the funds in the account reach the supervision quota, the funds exceeding the quota can be withdrawn and used freely by the real estate enterprises. On the premise of ensuring project delivery, the new measures improve the flexibility of the use of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and correct the practice of over strict supervision of pre-sale funds in some regions.
5) on February 8, the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the management of real estate loan concentration, which made it clear that from the date of printing and distributing the notice, the relevant loans issued by banking financial institutions to affordable rental housing projects holding the certificate of affordable rental housing projects will not be included in the management of real estate loan concentration.
Investment suggestions: 1) the central bank will set the tone of “two maintenance” on September 24, 2021 and release doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; On December 6, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and released 1.2 trillion long-term funds; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. The central economic work conference reiterated that “housing is not fried” and then put forward “policies for the city”, and the restrictions on house purchase in some regions will be gradually withdrawn. 2) Since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the signal of capital area pole, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 3) We believe that while the liquidity of the industry is alleviated, the trend of prudent management and “deleveraging” of real estate finance will continue to deepen, and some of the early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. The high-quality real estate enterprises adhering to the principle of “moderate leverage, steady operation, quality and orderly development” will usher in the development opportunity of “orderly competition”, and gradually lead China’s real estate industry to the iterative upgrading of “rationalization of profits, refinement of management, high-quality products and green construction”. 4) Recently, the confidence of the capital market in the real estate sector has increased significantly, the sector has ushered in a “good start”, and the high-quality leading real estate enterprises have performed well. Highlight China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Resources Land and Longhu group.
Risk analysis: global inflation expectation pushes up development costs, covid-19 epidemic affects residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and some real estate enterprises may have credit default.
