Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4850 yuan / ton, compared with – 1.8% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4960 yuan / ton, compared with – 3.9% last week. Raw material prices fell this week. Port iron ore prices fell this week compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; Scrap prices fell compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar increased this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is + 131 yuan / ton, + 23 yuan / ton and + 128 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five major steel plants decreased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.86 million tons, up 156600 tons week on week, of which the output of construction steel increased by 95800 tons week on week, the output of sector increased by 60800 tons week on week, and the output of rebar increased by 120000 tons to 2559800 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2493100 tons and 66700 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio was + 54300 tons and + 65700 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 1335300 tons to 16.6884 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 6.2947 million tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 230700 tons, of which the rebar social warehouse increased by 1.079 million tons and the factory warehouse decreased by 93800 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 1645700 tons, up 103900 tons on a week-on-week basis.
Investment suggestion: the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. The steady growth policy is expected to be strengthened and the steel consumption is gradually started. On the supply side, the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry once again reiterated the restriction of iron and steel production capacity. During the “Winter Olympics”, the production restriction in the North continued, and the release of steel output was limited. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of steel and the inventory level of steel mills before the Spring Festival are far lower than that in the same period of the lunar calendar last year. The total social inventory of steel in the second week after the festival is + 1335300 tons on a weekly basis, but the total inventory of steel mills is – 230700 tons on a weekly basis. On the raw material side, the iron ore port inventory is still at a high level. With the tightening of supervision, the price has dropped significantly. On the whole, after the festival, steel consumption started or supported steel prices, while the iron ore at the raw material end fell sharply, and the profits of steel mills gradually rebounded. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Object of pipe: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly
