Core view: in January 2022, due to the Spring Festival, the growth rate of business volume in the industry was low, and the single ticket price was still strong. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Tongda’s profit improvement has been verified. Considering the good performance of unit price in 2022 and the continuous tightening of policy and supervision, it is optimistic that Tongda system will continue to show performance flexibility in the first quarter of 2022.
Volume: in January, the business volume of express delivery increased by 3.3%, and the business volume during the Spring Festival increased by 16% year-on-year. In January, the express business volume reached 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. During the Spring Festival (from January 31 to February 6), the express industry received and delivered 749 million express packages, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year. Among them, 420 million express deliveries were received, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, and 329 million express deliveries, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6%. In January, Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express completed 13.3 / 15.1 / 9.9 / 990 million tickets respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% / 9.1% / 17.3% / 10%. In terms of share, the market shares of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / Shunfeng were 15.2% / 17.2% / 11.3% / 11.3% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 0.3 / + 0.9 / + 1.4 / + 0.7 percentage points, and the share of Shentong increased significantly.
Price: the unit price of express delivery in January was still strong, and the unit price of Yunda increased by 17.5%. In January, the business income of national express service enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, reaching 91.73 billion yuan. Among them, the logistics business revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express was 36.19/39.57/25.65/17.28 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / 28% / 21% / 14%. In terms of single ticket revenue, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF Express Division was 2.72/2.62/2.59/17.47 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 14.6% / 17.5% / 3.2% / 3.8%. The overall price performance of the industry was excellent. Since August 2021, Yuantong’s strategy has focused on price, and the unit price has become positive year-on-year, and has maintained a positive growth of more than 10% for three consecutive months. In January 2022, the unit price of Yunda increased year-on-year. It remains to be seen whether it is the Spring Festival factor or the strategic transformation. The price change of Shentong is 3.2%, with the lowest increase, and there is a trend of strategic expansion. In terms of grain producing areas, Yiwu completed 850 million pieces of business in January, with a unit price of RMB 3.38, a year-on-year increase of 17.04% and a month on month increase of 9.41% compared with December 21.
Outlook: the industry will enter the off-season at the end of March. Under the condition of low demand, the possibility of intensified local or phased price competition in the industry cannot be ruled out. However, considering the continuous tightening of policies, in 2022, we expect that the industry is still in the repair cycle of easing competition, and the off-season price will decline month on month, but the year-on-year probability will still increase significantly.
Express is still in the repair cycle and continues to recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Tongda as the head enterprises. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) production capacity deployment is slowing down gradually, capacity utilization is climbing gradually, capacity cycle and management cycle are superimposed, and the certainty of marginal repair is high. Tongda is still in the cycle of policy control and competitive repair. With the head enterprise’s strategy turning to the price side, we believe that the single ticket revenue rate of the express industry in 2022 will be better than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the price elasticity of the head enterprise in the first quarter of 2022 and continue to pay attention to the price trend of the industry in the off-season from March to May. Maintain the “buy” rating of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and China Express.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises.
