The central economic work conference set the tone of macroeconomic policies in 2022 as stable and effective, with the stability of the national economy at the forefront, and implemented an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The meeting stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the reasonable housing demand of commercial housing, and correct the deviation of real estate policy. At the same time, it is noted that the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate on January 17. It is expected that the LPR will decrease with the MLF, which will play a certain role in driving the macro-economy. As the backbone of fixed asset investment, real estate and infrastructure are expected to start a new round of stable growth. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
In terms of infrastructure, under the policy theme of “stable growth”, the Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance in 2022, mainly invested in transportation infrastructure construction, new energy and other infrastructure fields. According to the data of the central bank, in January 2022, credit and social finance achieved growth, supporting downstream demand. New and old infrastructure, including water conservancy, roads and bridges, new energy facilities and urban facilities, are expected to benefit first, and opportunities for large infrastructure sectors are recommended. Focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) .
In terms of real estate, this week, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the concentration management of real estate loans. The National Conference on housing and urban rural construction pointed out that the supply of affordable rental housing will be greatly increased in 2022, focusing on large cities with net population inflow, and 2.4 million affordable rental housing will be built and raised throughout the year. As of mid January, nearly 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have issued Implementation Opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing. During the “14th five year plan” period, the supply of affordable rental housing will be expanded, and a preliminary plan is to add 6.5 million units (rooms) in 40 key cities. With favorable industrial policies, the downstream demand for real estate is expected to form support, focusing on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) with rapid development of real estate business.
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry. Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) the energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. Recommend Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , focusing on Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
BIPV is an important development direction of green buildings. The 14th five year plan clearly proposes to accelerate the development of non fossil energy, adhere to both centralized and distributed development, and vigorously improve the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings. The central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. The aging trend of construction workers is obvious, and the labor cost is also increasing. Prefabricated buildings have obvious advantages over traditional cast-in-place buildings in terms of labor cost. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Yuanda housing and workers.
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The implementation of policies in the real estate industry is less than expected; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
