Market review of the previous week (2022.2.14-2022.2.18): the Shanghai index rose for four consecutive days after falling on the first day, the Shenzhen index fell on the first day and rose on the second day, and then continued to maintain a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% to close at 3490.76. The CSI 300 rose 1.08% last week to close at 4651.24. The gem rose 2.93% last week to close at 2826.81. Last week, two of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose from high to low: Education (+ 5.90%), professional services (+ 0.59%), tourism retail (- 1.81%), hotel catering (- 3.27%), tourism and scenic spots (- 5.67%). Last week, 20 of Shenwan (2021) 31 primary industries rose, and the top five were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, beauty care and architectural decoration. Among them, the social service sector fell 0.33%, ranking 24th among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.41pcts. The policy supports the liberalization of duty-free industries, and the sales of duty-free stores in Hainan are booming; Tourism may face a reversal, and the market is expected to produce positive changes; The overall situation of supply and demand has warmed up, and the hotel reservation volume has performed well since the beginning of the year.
Main points:
The policy has helped the development of tax exemption, and the sales of stores in Hainan have increased significantly: the tax-free industry is closely related to relevant policies. At present, China’s tax-free industry policies have been continuously liberalized, helping the tax-free industry enter a period of rapid growth. The further liberalization of business term and bidding time limit will give the tax-free industry broader development space. According to sina.com, as of February 13, the total sales of 10 duty-free shops on outlying islands in Hainan this year were 9.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%. Under the macro background of the improvement of epidemic prevention situation, the upgrading of China’s consumption level and policy support, the boom recovery of tax exemption and its related sub industries has received important support.
The tourism industry may welcome the recovery, and the introduction of policies will help the market welcome the “little sunny spring”: according to the previous calculation of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 251 million Chinese tourists traveled throughout the country during the Spring Festival holiday, realizing China’s tourism revenue of 289.198 billion yuan, and the market performance is generally stable and orderly. At the same time, the tourism market presents new characteristics and new trends. The Winter Olympics has driven the enthusiasm of ice and snow sports. As of February 17, there are 654 standard ice rinks and 803 indoor and outdoor ski resorts in China. Recently, the “14th five year plan” and “relief and support measures” and other policies have played a substantive role in helping the tourism industry and helping enterprises layout after the epidemic.
Supply and demand trends are expected to continue to improve, and hotel bookings have exceeded expectations since the beginning of the year: according to the data provided by Sanya Tourism Promotion Bureau, as of February 15, the occupancy rate of hotels in the city has reached more than 90%, and many hotels are full. Hotel bookings in Sanya, Wanning, Lingshui, Wenchang and other cities increased by about 30% year-on-year. The supply and demand pattern of the hotel industry is expected to continue to improve, and the more perfect control mechanism has strengthened the recovery expectation, but the industry recovery logic still needs to be verified month by month.
Investment suggestions:
Under the background of policy assistance and the gradual improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation, as of February 13, the total sales of 10 duty-free shops on outlying islands in Hainan this year were 9.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%. The macro environment has promoted the steady growth of the tax-free industry. As a leader, China tax exemption has high-quality growth in the medium and long term. The winter of tourism is coming, and the market will welcome “little sunny spring”. The supply and demand trend is expected to continue to improve, and the hotel reservation volume has exceeded expectations since the beginning of the year. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) and other hotels, scenic spots and tourism comprehensive service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; It is recommended to release Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) for the benefit of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) for the innovation of high-frequency consumption scenes and life services.
Risk tips:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
