This week's topic: the latest view of sports shoes and clothing
Under the background of penetration improvement, sports trend and policy support, sports shoes and clothing is a high-quality track with growth. 1) In the short term, under the influence of repeated epidemics, base differences, catalysis of sports events such as the Winter Olympic Games and other factors, we expect the overall retail of H1 industry to show a fluctuating growth trend in 2022. 2) In the medium and long term, China's sports market (according to the company's announcement data, the scale of China's sports shoes and clothing market reached 13% in 2015-2019 and is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the future) is still better than the overall Chinese clothing industry and the global sports market. With the prosperity of sports and the support of national policies, the industry has long-term growth. Our judgment: 1) the value focus of the industrial chain is still on brands and will be further inclined. Domestic brands have the opportunity to surpass the growth rate of the industry. 2) The concentration of upstream brands has accelerated, and the barriers of head manufacturers have been deepened. 2) The profit space of channel providers is relatively compressed.
1. Brands: the rise of national brands has become an obvious trend. China's sports shoes and clothing market is highly concentrated and continues to rise. At the same time, with the rise of national brand awareness and the continuous progress of domestic brands, the latter has the opportunity to increase its share. 1) At present, the share of domestic brands is accelerating, and the future trend is expected to continue. According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the growth rate of Anta brand and Li Ning brand q1-q3 was more than 25% and 80% + / 90% + / 40% + respectively, which significantly exceeded the performance of international brands in the Chinese market. 2) Category competition elements are clear and increasingly fierce. ① Product side: brands increase scientific and technological research and development while taking into account fashion design, so as to promote the increase of product prices. At present, Li Ning / Anta have launched shoes with more than 2000 / 1000 yuan respectively; ② Marketing side: leading enterprises master the core event resources and increase the exposure of cooperative idols. ③ Channel end: from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, DTC channels and e-commerce channels have become an important starting point. Under the consumption trend of products being king and national brand rising, China's leading brands are expected to improve brand competitiveness and drive up the valuation by iterating high-quality products. We recommend core recommendations [Li Ning], [Anta Sports] and [Tebu international]. The current price corresponds to 36.1/29.0/25.6 times of the valuation in 2022.
2. Manufacturers: the pattern is concentrated upward, and the leading barriers are strengthened. The change of industrial environment puts forward higher requirements for the stability and response speed of the supply chain. 1) Short term: the external environment is still uncertain, the order resources are inclined, the head is stable, and the production capacity wins. According to the announcement of the company, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 2021 performance is expected to increase by 40% - 55%. We expect the output growth of Shenzhou International in 2021 / 2022 to be about 10% / 20% respectively. 2) Medium and long term: leading dialogue, the strong will always be strong, and brands will streamline the supplier team is an industrial trend. Manufacturing leaders will continue to benefit and their share of major customers is expected to increase. Our core recommendation is [Shenzhou International], and the current price corresponds to 29.7 times of PE in 2022; Attention [ Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ], the current price corresponds to 27.8 times of PE in 2022; Pay attention to taobo. The current price corresponds to 17.4 times of PE in 2022.
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; Low end consumption risk; The store expansion of each company is less than expected; The development of new business is not smooth, etc.
