Precious metals: the situation in Ukraine and Russia is getting worse and worse, and the rise of gold price is supported by risk aversion and inflation. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: the minutes of FOMC meeting in January were slightly lower than the market expectation, and the market’s original radical expectation of interest rate increase was facing adjustment. This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds fell slightly to 1.92%, and it is difficult to break through 2% in the short term. ② Inflation expectations: concerns about the supply of bulk commodities represented by energy and crude oil continue to push up the market inflation level, raising interest rates to the initial stage of economic transmission or it is difficult to change the CPI to continue to rise. The situation in Russia and Ukraine had a significant impact on the price of precious metals during the week. On Wednesday, Russia announced the withdrawal of some troops from the Ukrainian border, which eased the risk aversion in the market. Then Biden insisted on warning that the possibility of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was very high, and the risk aversion pushed the price of gold above $1900. Short term focus on oil price inflation transmission & the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Base metals: the seasonal accumulation of reserves continues, and the expectation of peak season promotes the upward price shock. (1) Copper: ① in the macro aspect, the minutes of FOMC meeting in January were slightly lower than the market expectation, the early radical expectation of interest rate increase was revised, and the macro risk of copper price was gradually mitigated; ② In terms of supply, the 2021 annual report of Southern Copper industry shows that the annual copper output in 2021 was 958000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. It is expected that 922000 tons of copper will be produced in 2022, which continues to decline slightly year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of copper grade and recovery rate; At present, the contradiction at the copper supply side is not prominent, and the TC transaction of imported spot copper concentrate is around us $64 / ton. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the reduction of old mines in Chile and the increase of new mines represented by kamoa; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper Inventory (China social Treasury (including SHFE) + bonded + LME + Comex exchange) was 573700 tons, up from 31500 tons last week. Among them, China’s social inventory increased by 32500 tons, the bonded area increased by 4000 tons, the LME inventory and remained unchanged this year, Comex copper went to the warehouse by 5000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period increased by 29700 tons. Spot demand is still in a weak state, and inventory has accumulated seasonally. This week, SHFE inventory has increased from 29700 tons to 136000 tons, and the total inventory has rebounded to the normal level. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the opening rate of refined copper rod continued to fall in January and February. Under the condition of low inventory, China’s spot still maintains a high premium, traders sell goods at a high price, and China’s demand expectation is optimistic; LME inventory is still around 70000 tons, lme0-3 maintains a strong back structure of US $50 / ton, the import price ratio of external strength and internal weakness continues to fall, and strong overseas consumption supports the upward shock of copper price. Continue to pay attention to the resumption of work after the festival and the inflection point of inventory. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: on Wednesday, the large exchange accumulated 22000 tons to 120600 tons, and the LME inventory returned to the warehouse state. China’s social inventory increased by 581 to 1055100 tons, and the current cumulative inventory level is still low; ② Supply: at present, the production capacity to be resumed is mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi provinces. On February 17, a total of 22 confirmed cases were added in Hohhot and Baotou, Inner Mongolia. In 2021, the output of electrolytic aluminum in Inner Mongolia accounted for 15% of China’s total output. If the epidemic fermentation in the province affects the local electrolytic aluminum supply (Commencement & Transportation), it will have a significant impact on China’s supply, The actual impact remains to be observed; ③ Demand: affected by the epidemic situation, environmental protection policies of the Winter Olympic Games and high aluminum prices, some downstream processing enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan are still suspended, other provinces have started to resume production, and the overall order demand is climbing. In addition, the 6063 aluminum rod processing fee rose again this week, proving that the downstream demand recovery is better than the downstream. The late March is the seasonal peak season for aluminum processing, and the big difference between this peak season and 2021 is that the energy and power supply are significantly restored, and the downstream construction is expected to remain normal. Therefore, we expect the subsequent electrolytic aluminum accumulation rate to decline in February, and the supply and demand fundamentals are expected to significantly support the strengthening of aluminum prices from late March. The subsequent inventory trend is the focus of current aluminum prices. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: the spot market remains tight, and the price of cobalt and lithium continues to reach a new high. (1) Lithium: (1) lithium: during the week, electric carbon rose by 50000 yuan / ton to 445400 yuan / ton, with strong performance in the spot market. The price growth of lithium concentrate slowed down, and the price of lithium carbonate broke through the profit space of lower power carbon, rising by 44700 yuan / ton to 236800 yuan / ton during the week. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase by 1.45 times and 1.45 times respectively in the same period of last year; (2) Nickel: SHFE nickel rose 3.38% to 177890 yuan / ton this week, and nickel sulfate rose 1.19% to 42500 yuan / ton. Although Qingshan high matte nickel began to flow into China, there is still a structural gap in the short-term nickel sulfate raw material, which needs to be supplemented by soluble nickel beans. Under the high cost loss and production reduction in the early stage, with the centralized procurement of large factories after the festival, the spot inventory of nickel sulfate continues to be consumed and then becomes tight. The price of nickel sulfate continues to rise and the profit is repaired. However, the current profit level is still difficult to stimulate the rapid recovery of the supply side. It is expected that the short-term spot will remain in short supply and the price still has room to rise; (3) Cobalt: China’s Electrolytic Cobalt reported 536500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17500 yuan / ton; Cobalt sulfate was reported as 113000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1500 yuan / ton; The price of MB cobalt was reported at US $34.93/lb, with a slight increase; The CIF quotation of cobalt intermediate products rose to US $31.09/lb, and the discount coefficient remained unchanged at 89%. After, downstream enterprises resumed production one after another, and there was a strong demand for alloy and magnetic materials procurement. There is a continuous shortage of intermediate products in the upstream. Due to concerns about future inventory, the bullish sentiment in the downstream is becoming more and more obvious. In January, the production, marketing and installed capacity of new energy continued the high-speed development trend of last year. After the festival, the price of energy metals accelerated and kept breaking new highs. The profit margin of cobalt sulfate processing increased to 54400 yuan / ton within the week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
