Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week (02.14-02.18), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.77%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.08%, the SW non-ferrous index rose 4.92%, Comex gold rose 2.16% and silver rose 1.48%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by 2.11%, 1.27%, – 2.07%, 1.95%, 4.45% and 0.25% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 2.97%, – 0.03%, – 2.72%, – 9.20%, – 1.37% and – 3.07% respectively.
Industrial metals: the national development and Reform Commission supports overweight with steady growth, and industrial metals operate at a high level. Core view: the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, proposed to accelerate the construction of new infrastructure projects, promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, increase the intensity of steady growth, and continue to be optimistic about the industrial metal price under the steady growth policy. In terms of copper, the mining end has gradually recovered, China’s demand has gradually recovered, and inventories remain low. Coupled with high inflation transactions, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. In terms of aluminum, concerns about energy shortage in overseas Europe continued, China’s supply remained low, demand began to recover after the festival, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum slowed down, and there was still room for aluminum prices to rise. The weekly accumulative storage of electrolytic aluminum is 90000 tons to 1039000 tons. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) etc.
New energy metals: the price of lithium and cobalt did not change, and the demand was hot. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 136% and a month on month decrease of 19%. The good performance continued. The demand for energy metals was strong, the supply was still limited, and the tense pattern continued. Core view: in terms of cobalt, the transportation congestion problem in South Africa is difficult to solve in the short term, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand is still strong. After the festival, lithium cobaltate enterprises began to purchase and replenish the stock, and the cobalt price continued to rise. In terms of lithium, the maintenance of enterprises has been completed one after another, and the supply has rebounded. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is strong, the demand is strong, the gap between lithium supply and demand is still in, and the expansion of iron and lithium production continues to promote the rise of lithium price. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) etc.
Precious metals: market risk aversion is rising, and gold continues to rise. Core view: tense relations between Russia and Ukraine, rising geopolitical risks, rising risk aversion in the market, the Fed meeting is not as hawkish as expected, and the inflation level is high, so we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Russia Ukraine relations are repeated, geopolitical risks are difficult to retreat, and the market risk aversion is strong. In the medium and long term, US inflation continues to rise, the real interest rate is at a historically low level, and there is still room for gold to rise. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the recovery of demand is less than expected, the release of supply is more than expected, and the uncertainty of policy is increased
