This week’s view
Steel industry: the price of raw materials fell, and the profit of steel continued to improve
As of February 18, the five major varieties of thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod reported 4910 yuan / ton, 4970 yuan / ton, 5152 yuan / ton, 5508 yuan / ton and 5249 yuan / ton respectively this week. The week on month ratio decreased by 2.2%, 2.5%, 1.5%, 0.9% and 2.1% respectively. In terms of social inventory, on February 18, the social inventory was 16.7061 million tons, an increase of 1.3348 million tons on a weekly basis.
Gross profit per ton of steel continued to increase. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 527 yuan, 544 yuan, 472 yuan, 553 yuan and 828 yuan respectively, up 10 yuan, 84 yuan, 119 yuan, 148 yuan and 88 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coal have fallen under the conditions of fundamentals and policy supervision. In the short term, the demand for steel is still gradually recovering, and the price of steel has fallen, but the decline is weaker than that of raw materials. Therefore, the gross profit per ton of steel is further thickened. We believe that in the future, with the further start of the demand side, the relationship between supply and demand will further support the steel price, while the price of raw materials is difficult to rise sharply. Future steel profits are expected to continue to grow.
In the field of infrastructure construction, the word “stability” of economy will take the lead in 2022, and all localities are expected to accelerate the construction of underground pipe network and major water conservancy and gas pipeline projects. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
In addition, our first steel subdivision high-end variety, electrical steel, is the core magnetic material driving modern industry. In particular, high-grade non oriented electrical steel for new energy vehicles has extremely high technical barriers. Baosteel and Shougang master the core technology. Because new energy vehicles can only use high-grade non oriented silicon steel instead of all varieties. It is estimated that the proportion of non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles will increase to 17% – 20% in 2021. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (2021-2023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Building materials company: Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) .
Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Non ferrous industry: the spot prices of rare earth and lithium have reached a record high, and based on the fundamental supply and demand and inventory situation in the next half year, the price is expected to continue to rise. The future growth is determined. According to the annual calculation of the latest market price, the PE valuation has been less than 10 times, so we are optimistic about the valuation repair market of rare earth and lithium sector
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2710 / ton this week, up 0%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 372500 yuan / ton, up 14.09%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 438000 yuan / ton, up 11.73%. Rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 1.095 million yuan / ton, 3.14 million yuan / ton and 15 million yuan / ton this week, up 6.83%, 2.28% and 5.75% respectively. The spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy continues to be tight, and the state of continuous low inventory in the industrial chain will remain. Driven by the replenishment of inventory by downstream enterprises, we expect the price center of lithium and rare earth to continue to rise;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of aluminum, the situation in Russia and Ukraine was tense again, and LME aluminum price continued to lead SHFE aluminum price to rise. China’s electrolytic aluminum continues to resume production, and the inventory of some processing enterprises in the downstream is further increased due to the Winter Olympics and epidemic situation. With the gradual commencement of the downstream and the steady growth policy, the current inventory is expected to be close to the high point. High inflation in the United States has led to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, which has less impact on aluminum than copper. The current supply and demand constraints of the aluminum industry can not be alleviated by interest rate hikes. The negative impact of macro liquidity on aluminum prices is limited and very short-term. After the surge of short-term interest rate hikes, the market will quickly return to the logical main line of overseas supply side constraints. At present, the average profit of the simulated electrolytic aluminum industry has been close to the level of the second quarter of last year, and the production capacity has been resumed since December. It is expected that the profit in the first quarter will be significantly improved month on month. At present, the valuation of basic metal related targets is still low. It is expected to usher in fundamental repair and valuation repair in the first quarter, and the metal raw material industry will usher in a new round of market.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u3000 China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) 、 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 、 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 、 Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) 、 Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) 、 China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) 、 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) 、 Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) 、 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 、 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) 、 Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) 、 Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) 、 Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) 、 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) 、 Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) 、 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) 、 Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
