I. review and theme of this week:
This week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 4.85%, ranking the third in the industry, outperforming the CSI 300 index and the gem index. In this week’s special topic, we combed the enterprises that have launched equity incentive, employee stock ownership plan and repurchase plan in recent years, and combed the new direction of traditional Chinese medicine, upstream independent control, covid-19 therapeutic drugs and related targets of its industrial chain. After a week of strong relative stabilization of medicine, we combed multidimensional to seek future layout opportunities.
II. Recent resumption:
Performance this week: the pharmaceutical index performed well. The collective performance of CXO led the rebound, some stocks in covid-19 therapeutic drug supply chain led the rise list, and the collective core assets stabilized. Reason analysis: first, from the perspective of event catalysis, the approval of Pfizer covid-19 drug in China and boten’s super large order of covid-19 have a great impact. First, it stabilized and rebounded the continuously falling CXO, thus stabilizing the trend of pharmaceutical track stocks and further driving the participation mood of yixiaobo pharmaceutical. In addition, the continued outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong is also an additive impact on the pharmaceutical sector. Second, from the perspective of market transactions, the gem has also been in the process of rebound in the past week, and the overall environment is relatively coordinated. After continuous decline, the medicine also needs to oversold and rebound, and the double high problem of high valuation and high position concentration has been greatly released, and the willingness of medicine to participate has been strengthened. Third, from the perspective of fundamental cognition, in fact, the current situation of medicine is the real situation of the industry and the cognitive expectation after superimposing policy disturbance. Now it should be in the stage of relatively sufficient excessive negative cognitive concern. Current outlook: the core reason for the decline of medicine is the double high digestion of “high valuation” and “high chip concentration” after the bull market. In fact, after the decline in the first half of 2021 and the sharp decline in January 2022, the problem of “high valuation” has been greatly alleviated and “high chip concentration” is gradually alleviated. Concerns about sectors and segments have been fully discussed. At present, there is no need to be pessimistic about the pharmaceutical index. The downward risk is relatively controllable, but it is still dominated by the individual stock market. At this time, valuation and performance are the best weapon against emotional concerns. We suggest that we pay attention to performance determination in the short term and recognize the oversold target of common sense valuation.
III. sector view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: the past 4-5 years have been a pharmaceutical bull market, and investment has paid more attention to “enjoy valuation expansion after selecting the head company of the main track”. The process of leaving the pharmaceutical bull market from the second half of 2021 to 2022 is to pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion”. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our vision. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low. However, because we are worried about the reform policy at the payment end, we ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logical restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, while China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the top of the list is medicine (the aging is intensifying, the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption is intensifying, and the penetration rate of consumption medicine is increasing). It is optimistic for a long time. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of pharmaceutical science and technology, pharmaceutical consumption, pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical mode.
2. Medium and short term: medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range. The medium and short term is still bottom-up and pays more attention to the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading.
3. Configuration idea:
* consumption upgrading: (1) vaccines: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) Selected traditional Chinese medicines: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; (3) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) etc;
* manufacturing upgrade: (1) upstream of biomedicine ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ); (2) Differentiated cdmo ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) ); (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ); (4) Injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
* Innovation Upgrading: (1) covid-19 small molecule & innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ); (2) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) );
(3) nuclear medicine ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) )* Other long-term tracking and promising targets include: { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , {3002015} {{300300300760} Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) { Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) { Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) { Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) { Zhejiang Wanma Co.Ltd(002276) Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{ Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{{3000513} { Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) {{ Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) {{{{{{6002761} {{{600276276276} {6008366} {68833} {{6883688319}} {688383838319} {{60076763}, {600763 763}}}, {30009}, Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) , Tinavi Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688277) Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) , Allgens Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688613) , Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) , Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) , Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
