Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.80% and 1.78% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index rose by 0.14%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (29 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 4.09% and – 9.41% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 3.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 0.14%, ranking 18th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries.
In the past week, 19 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were nonferrous metals, medicine and power equipment, with increases of 5.71%, 4.84% and 4.80% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 3.16%, ranking 15th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, nine of the 29 CITIC’s first tier industries have risen, with the top three industries being coal, banking and construction, up 11.45%, 7.55% and 7.25% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were trade, gold jewelry and professional market, with an increase of 4.86%, 1.24% and 0.76% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are gold jewelry, professional markets and department stores, with an increase of 0.57%, 0.25% and – 1.15% respectively.
In the past week, 54 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, one was flat and 38 fell. Over the past week, the top three companies were Hongtu high tech, Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co.Limited(600814) and Sunny Loan Top Co.Ltd(600830) , with increases of 15.38%, 9.91% and 9.83% respectively. Since 2022, 46 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) have increased and 47 have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) and Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000419) , with growth rates of 192.02%, 36.39% and 19.43% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
After the Spring Festival, the market’s expectations for the retail sector gradually returned to calm. Although individual stocks still fluctuated repeatedly, the overall retail trend was weaker than before the Spring Festival. On the one hand, the Spring Festival data did not have bright good news frequently. On the other hand, the rise of cyclical stocks also attracted some funds. The gold and jewelry sector is still a good bright spot in the sub sector of the industry. The fluctuation of the surrounding situation leads to a strong trend of gold price. We believe that multiple factors still support the follow-up market of gold and jewelry, and suggest that investors can still bargain hunting layout. The negative news of reducing catering rates on Friday led to the diving of meituan’s share price, mainly due to the market’s concern that meituan’s take out business income and profit may be further under pressure when the social security policy has not been implemented. However, in view of the fact that meituan’s takeout business has only maintained a low profit state, and the scope and extent of rate reduction still need to be further observed, we suggest investors treat the Internet industry rationally. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
