Liquidity: in January 2022, the growth difference between M1 and M2 fell to a new low level since 2015. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in January 2022 was 48.27, a month on month increase of + 2.41%. The high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 11.7 percentage points in January 2022 and – 6.20 percentage points month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the operating rate of all steel tires rebounded significantly month on month this week. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 1.82%, cement price index – 0.67%, rubber – 2.89%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore – 16.50%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were -1.13pct, + 2.48pct, -2.10pct and + 23.80pct respectively; (3) This week, the price of nodular cast pipe is 7950 yuan / ton, and the processing fee is 3520 yuan / ton, which is at a high level in recent 10 years.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of flat glass and titanium dioxide decreased month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 0.59% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 2319 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 6.77%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 573 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 10.75%; (3) The price of PVC was 9163.00 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 2.03%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire increased by 16 percentage points month on month. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the prices of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 1.06%, – 1.35%, – 0.87% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by + 27.50%, – 2.31%, – 4.29%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 36.18%, with a month on month ratio of + 16.07 percentage points.
Subdivided varieties: the profit of graphite electrode rose by 3.56% month on month. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power was 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and the profit was 3110.9 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.56%; (2) Nickel: the price this week is 180650 yuan / ton, up + 2.12% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 20200 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.80%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5150 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the profit is – 1011 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22720 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of -0.87%, and the estimated profit is 4897.9 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a chain comparison of -4.29%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 673 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 21.92%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 1000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of -0.99%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread is narrowed to 110 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.91 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 110 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 770 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month increase of + 30 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.12, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 210 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 10.53% from last week.
Export chain: CCFI composite index fell month on month. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 3500.19 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 2.44%; (2) In January 2022, the new order value of global PMI was 52.20, with a chain comparison of -1.20 points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was + 1.08%, the performance of the cyclical sector ranked first in chemical (+ 3.16%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) was 34.64% and 63.28% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.71, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.90 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: at present, the overall performance of real estate infrastructure remains weak and the follow-up incremental space is limited, but we still need to pay attention to the structural opportunities of infrastructure. The recent national water network, underground pipe network and municipal engineering construction policies are expected to drive the recovery of pipe demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
