Main points:
Nonferrous Metals outperformed the market this week, with an increase of 5.31%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% to close at 3490.76; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.78% to close at 13459.68; The CSI 300 rose 1.08% to close at 4651.24.
Base metal
The current market of base metals is relatively strong in this cycle. Futures market: LME copper, aluminum, lead, tin and nickel increased by 1.27%, 2.11%, 1.95%, 0.25% and 4.45% over the same period last week; LME zinc price fell 2.07% compared with the same period last week. China’s spot market: lead, nickel and tin increased by 1.62%, 0.96% and 0.15% respectively; Copper, aluminum and zinc decreased by 1.35%, 0.87% and 2.41% respectively. Copper: copper prices fluctuated slightly this week. The steady growth policy continued to boost commodities. In terms of supply, the supply of copper raw materials remained high, and the overseas Las bambas copper mine had the risk of shutdown due to the interests of local communities. In terms of demand, the pace of work resumption in the downstream after the festival is slow, and the overall terminal demand is weak. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 136300 tons, up 27.89% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices fluctuated slightly this week. Overseas supply disturbances are frequent, the European energy crisis has not been effectively solved, and production has been reduced or expanded again. In terms of China’s supply, the epidemic situation in Guangxi has been effectively controlled and local transportation has been gradually restored. In addition, local policies support aluminum plants in Baise that have stopped production due to the epidemic to speed up the resumption of production, and China’s electrolytic aluminum operation capacity is expected to increase. Consumer demand is expected to improve, downstream work has resumed, and the demand toughness of real estate and infrastructure related industries is prominent. As of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 325700 tons, up 9.76% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 537000 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is relatively stable. The price of cobalt sulfate is 112000 yuan / ton, up 5.66% from last week; The price of Co3O4 was 422500 yuan / ton, up 2.42% from last week. Shipping pressure still exists, transportation obstruction affects the supply of cobalt raw materials, and the current situation of tight cobalt supply still exists. On the demand side, the consumption expectation of new energy vehicles and other fields is optimistic, the demand for cobalt increases steadily, and the price of cobalt is expected to continue to rise steadily. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt rose. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 415000 yuan / ton, up 12.16% year-on-year from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 355500 yuan / ton, up 16.37% year-on-year from last week. Lithium prices continued to rise this week, the progress of upstream lithium resource supply remained unchanged, and manufacturers that stopped production before the festival gradually resumed work, but the overall increment was limited. In terms of demand, the terminal new energy market maintained a high boom, and the market bullish mood remained unchanged. Under the tight supply and demand situation, the high lithium price is expected to maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
Precious metals fluctuated upward as a whole this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was USD 1900.8/oz, up 2.16% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1893.6 per ounce, up 3.41% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $23.95/oz, up 1.48% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $23.77/ounce, up 3.82%. High global inflation, repeated outbreaks and tensions in Russia and Ukraine have increased the market demand for safe haven gold. Recently, the inflation expectation implied in the US bond market is still high, the market expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike is increased again, and the gold price remains volatile. Suggestions: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The European energy crisis continues to ferment; Risk of policy changes.
