Main points:
As of February 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.08% this week. The steel sector rose by 2.58%; Among the sub sectors, ordinary steel sector increased by 0.00% and special material sector increased by 3.97%.
Steel market: the ore price moves down, thickening the profit of steel mills, high-quality development of the industry, and paying attention to special steel opportunities
Steel prices fell this week, with spot prices of rebar, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium sector falling by 1.82%, 3.88%, 1.06% and 1.17% respectively. Affected by the reduction of iron ore price, the supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the decline of ore price has thickened the profits of steel mills. Under the influence of heating and production reduction in winter and environmental protection control of the Winter Olympic Games, the supply is low; Steady growth boosts infrastructure expectations and drives steel demand, and the current decline in steel prices is also conducive to demand repair; On the whole, the steel market operates well and the profits of steel mills can be repaired to a certain extent.
Special steel has performed strongly in the past two weeks. Under the guidance of high-quality development policy, subdivision tracks such as pipeline and steel structure deserve attention. From the perspective of new infrastructure construction, China’s pipeline has entered the upgrading stage, the construction of rural water supply and drainage system is rough, and the construction of urban sponge pipe network is also close at hand. It is suggested to pay attention to Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) .
As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the downstream demand of electrical steel. At present, the valuation of the sector is generally not high, and the electrical steel sector is optimistic for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) .
The price of rebar in the spot market this week was 4850.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 1.82%; The price of hot rolled coil was 4960.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.88%; The price of cold rolled coil was 5620.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.06%; The price of medium sector was 5090.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.17%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4779.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.57%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 4907.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%; The active contract price of wire rod was 5063.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.93%. The myspic composite steel price index was 182.32 points, with a weekly decline of 1.92%, of which the myspic long material index fell 1.92% and the myspic flat sector index fell 1.93%.
Raw material Market: the sound of supervision by ministries and commissions continued, and the price of iron ore fell in response
This week, the iron ore market continued to weaken, brush the low point in the new moon, and the double coke market price remained stable. In terms of iron ore, the voice of policy regulation on iron ore at the national level continues, which has aroused the concern of the market about the re overweight of regulation. The price of iron ore has fallen, and it is expected that the price of iron ore will show a high and volatile operation trend. In terms of dual coke, the market price of coke operated smoothly this week after the implementation of regulatory policies last week.
As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 820.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 16.41%; The price of primary metallurgical coke was 2910.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0%; The price of main coking coal is 2000.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 685 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 14.91%; The contract coke price was 3315.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.12%; The active price of coking coal was 2558.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 8.76%.
Steel supply and demand: demand support, steel enterprise inventory decline
In terms of steel output this week, cold rolling, rebar, medium and heavy sector and hot rolling increased by 3.14%, 4.92%, 0.44% and 1.03%, and wire rod decreased by 1.93%. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, the inventory of cold rolling, medium and heavy sector, wire rod and rebar decreased by 2.77%, 3.27%, 8.05% and 9.38% respectively, and the inventory of hot rolling increased by 0.4%. The demand side shock is stronger, and the overall situation is more optimistic. With the gradual resumption of production of the factory, the improvement of the resumption rate of downstream infrastructure construction, and the availability of local special bond funds, the demand of the steel market will be driven. In the long run, the corresponding national macroeconomic policies will improve, and the overall steel price trend will continue to rise.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the special steel leader who can fulfill the high-profile of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
