The demand growth of photovoltaic thermal field may slow down next year, while the supply will accelerate the expansion, which will usher in a fierce price war, so the growth of the company's traditional main business will slow down.
The new business has not been started for a short time, resulting in a shortage of new business.
Our core view:
Carbon based composites: similar to the "golden oil", the downstream has strong ductility. The photovoltaic carbon carbon heat field will not be the only business of the company. The second and third growth curves are pregnant and budding, waiting for flowers and fruits.
Photovoltaic carbon heat field: the manufacturing industry is often "the leftover is the king", and it is normal to supplement the price and unit profit by quantity. For the first traditional main business of the company, we value the product competitiveness and cost advantage (i.e. the gap between the cost curve and the second line).
Based on this, this report mainly expounds:
The development context of the enterprise -- that is, from the perspective of technology support, how the company chooses the second and third growth curves to grow from a single track to a platform enterprise.
Traditional business: core competitiveness and the gap between the second tier and Jinbo
New business: how big is the market space? How big can Jinbo do?
1. Development context - from a single track to a platform enterprise:
Product development: the company was established in 2005 and can be prefabricated in 2006. In 2009, it launched thermal field products, and then extended to semiconductor thermal field, carbon ceramic brake disc, hydrogen energy, etc.
Technical support: the company has successively broken through ① preform design & preparation, ② rapid chemical vapor deposition (CVD) equipment & process, ③ high temperature purification equipment & process, ④ thermal field system design optimization and other technologies. In the new business, ① and ④ are applied to semiconductors and silicon carbide, ①, ② and ③ are applied to brake discs, ①, ② and ③ are applied to hydrogen storage tanks, ① and ② are applied to carbon paper, Carbon powder and hydrogen applied ②.
2. Photovoltaic thermal field - the rest is the king, and build cost barriers:
Supply and demand:
Supply side: it is estimated that the total supply of leading enterprises such as Jinbo, super code, meirand, Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) , Shijin technology and silicon chip leader will be 6000 and 9000t + respectively in 22 and 23 years.
Demand side: 6000 and 8100t in 22 and 23 years respectively.
Supply and demand relationship: supply > demand in 22-23 years, and the price is under pressure.
Competitiveness:
Prefabricated body: it has the preparation capacity in 2006, and the cost is equivalent to that of professional manufacturers (corresponding to about 50% of gross profit margin).
Rapid CVD: in 2012, combined with self-developed large-scale CVD furnace, a breakthrough in rapid deposition process was achieved. The pure vapor deposition time is less than 300h, half of that in the same industry.
High temperature purification: after 2016, combined with the self-set high-temperature furnace, break through the purification technology without chlorine or Freon. At the same time, CVD technology is used to deposit pyrolytic carbon coating on the product surface to save cost.
Thermal field system design optimization: increase production and reduce consumption for customers.
Scenario analysis: under the pessimistic scenario, assuming that other enterprises can approach the company's cost control level in prefabricated body or rapid deposition, and the estimated gross profit margin is 44% and 43% respectively, Jinbo still has a leading edge in net profit margin of 20%, and the corresponding profit is 180000 / ton.
3. New business - a single spark is expected to start a prairie fire in the future:
Carbon ceramic brake disc:
Industry: energy saving 40% + faster braking + longer endurance + 3 times service life + single vehicle price can be reduced to 6000 (carbon fiber localization price reduction + process optimization) + vigorous development by multiple enterprises = industry volume is imminent, and the market scale is expected to reach 11.4 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan in 25 years.
Company: the similarity between carbon ceramic and carbon carbon preparation process is high. Assuming that the company can reach 10% market share and 20% net interest rate, the corresponding profit can be 230 million yuan.
Silicon carbide:
Industry: with the increasing demand for 5g + electric vehicles, the silicon carbide thermal field + high-purity silicon carbide synthetic thermal field will benefit. It is estimated that the market scale will exceed 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 30% CAGR in five years.
The company: relying on the carbon thermal field production & system design technology, the company can carve the alternative road of photovoltaic thermal field. Assuming that the 25-year market share is 10% and the net interest rate is 35%, the corresponding profit can be 150 million yuan. Hydrogen storage bottle:
Industry: with the increasing penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the market scale is expected to be nearly 5 billion in 25 years and 86% CAGR in 4 years.
Company: the technology of type III and IV hydrogen storage bottles is connected with prefabrication preparation. The company can produce in a short time. Assuming that the 25-year market share is 10% and the net interest rate is 15%, the corresponding profit can be nearly 100 million yuan.
4. Investment suggestion: the company's photovoltaic business has stable cost and technical advantages. New businesses focus on the self-developed core technology and process, with clear development context and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the industrial policy changes, the calculation is for reference only, and the new business development is uncertain.
