Domestic household sector:
The home industry is actively preparing for the 315 promotion, and the leading enterprises use live broadcast, short video and other means to accumulate traffic in advance. Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) released a short video of 315 promotional activities on the official video number, inviting dealers in Wuhan, Nanjing, Chengdu and other places to appear together to promote the 315 activities. At the same time, a 99 yuan legend card was issued from February 11 to February 25. Consumers can lock in the preferential price of 5-fold benefits during the 315 period after purchasing. A live broadcast will be arranged on the video number on February 25, Lock the traffic in advance through various ways and actively prepare for the 315 promotion.
Leading enterprises launch cost-effective whole package, from single product competition to multi category and whole house space competition. Europay launched 19800 / 29800 / 39800 / 49800 / 43600 packages of different grades. Except that 19800 package only includes wardrobe, other packages include customized wardrobe, furniture and background wall. Among them, 29800 package will be given moussus mattress and soft bed when the price is increased by 2999. 39800 package can be upgraded to zhihuashi sofa for free, and 49800 package can be upgraded to M & D sofa for free, Give another Midea air conditioner as a gift. Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) launched a 49800 whole house package, including 22m2 customized cabinet + 10 pieces of soft furniture + accessories, which not only meets the one-stop shopping needs of consumers, but also gives full play to the synergy of self-made software and cabinets. By establishing a standard system of "integrated R & D, design, production, matching, experience, delivery and after-sales", from environmental protection, appearance, storage, quality Six dimensions of experience and service improve customer experience. Continue to be optimistic about the software leaders [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] dominated by "domestic demand + 2C"; [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with good business structure and strong management ability are preferred in the customization section.
Aluminum plastic film sector:
On the whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus data, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China's aluminum plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. Recommended [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ], the core logic is domestic substitution. The essential reason is technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The unit price of aluminum plastic film of 21q3 company is 16.8 yuan / m2, the average price of 21h1 is 16.0 yuan / m2, and the average price of 20 years is 15.5 yuan / m2. The unit price continues to increase month on month, and the industry competition is good.
Metal packaging sector:
Metal packaging: the industry has benefited from the price increase of two-piece cans and the improvement of the competition pattern. It is expected to generally achieve high growth in 21 years. 1) Sunrise Group Company Limited(002752) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 166-182 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1116.9% ~ 1232.73%. The market demand and orders of the company's main products have increased significantly year-on-year. In particular, the orders of new energy beverage customers have increased significantly, driving the double growth of can making and filling business. In addition, high-end aluminum bottles have become one of the new core profit growth points of the company; 2) Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.Ltd(002969) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 157 million-174 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 355.82% ~ 403.8%. The market share of the company's old customers in the fields of traditional vegetable protein drinks and milk containing drinks continues to expand, and the head brand customers of functional drinks will be newly expanded. In addition, jelly soda, oat milk, thick coconut milk, coconut milk, soybean milk A group of market leading brand customers in subdivided fields such as coffee, and innovative products such as paper cans, ABC and SBC are commercialized and applied to multiple strong brands.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world's largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the "gold" in CCER project. The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China's carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 28.8% of the world, which is expected to become the world's largest carbon trading market! As a "negative carbon" approach in the process of "carbon neutralization", forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the "gold" in CCER project.
The "14th five year plan" and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry "was issued, which proposed to accumulate carbon sequestration and biomass resources. On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference stressed that "it is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from" double control "of energy consumption to" double control "of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition"; On December 17, 2021, Beijing Green Exchange resumed collecting all fees related to CCER trading; On December 24, 2021, the "14th five year plan" and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry put forward five development goals, including the accumulation of carbon sink and biomass resources. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
New tobacco sector:
Recently, e-cigarette policies have been intensively introduced, and policy norms have promoted the orderly development of the industry. On November 30, 2021, the state tobacco administration issued a notice on Soliciting Opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarette (Exposure Draft), which is to be officially implemented 3-5 months after its issuance. On December 2, 2021, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration publicly solicited opinions on the administrative measures for electronic cigarettes (Draft for comments). We believe that: (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and adopt unified centralized purchase platform sales; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, the coincidence rules and quality are beneficial to manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle, and wholesale enterprises need to apply for wholesale licenses. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ], [smore international], [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ].
Paper sector:
The supply side driven market of the paper industry still needs to wait for the opportunity. On February 8, the price increase plan announced before Shanying paper festival was implemented: t paper of 100g and below and tile paper of 110g and above were increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original base price, and tile paper of 100g and below was increased by 100 yuan / ton on the basis of the original base price. This week, the corrugated paper market increased steadily and partially, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. According to Zhuo Chuang data, the weekly average price of 120g AA grade corrugated paper in China this week was 3929 yuan / ton, up 22 yuan / ton compared with the average price in the previous period, up 0.56% month on month and 3.48% year-on-year. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ].
Risk warning: performance forecast data is only preliminary accounting data; The real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
