Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: this week, according to the financial Associated Press, a number of banks in Heze, Shandong Province reduced the down payment ratio of just needed home buyers to 20%. The demand side of the real estate side is also ushering in more substantial benefits. The pressure on home demand is also expected to be alleviated marginally. While consolidating the bottom of valuation, the home furnishing sector is also ushering in the opportunity of repair again. Moreover, we believe that the changes in the supply side of home furnishings in 2022 will be more noteworthy than the demand side. Under the trend of integrated sales of customization and software, there will be higher requirements for the comprehensive ability of brands and dealers, the competition threshold will be significantly improved, the industry pattern is expected to usher in marginal optimization, and the whole is still optimistic about Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) with significantly leading comprehensive ability, And the focus is optimistic that the results of in-depth reform are gradually emerging, and the valuation is at a low level of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) . In addition, although the price of raw materials has rebounded recently, on the whole, the price of some raw materials has decreased from the high point of last year. It is still recommended to actively pay attention to the profit restoration of household OEM enterprises with high export share.
New type of tobacco: in terms of atomization, the overall operating environment overseas is relatively ideal. Although all links of the whole industrial chain in the Chinese market are waiting for the implementation of the policy, especially the previous terminal shopkeepers are more cautious about purchasing, according to our recent grassroots research, the age of the main brand cigarette bombs in the first and second tier cities is about 2-3 months, The overall e-cigarette channel inventory has gradually been at a low level, and the terminal purchase is also improving month on month. Smalls China business is expected to gradually usher in improvement. In terms of HNB sector, China's HNB industry as a whole is still expected to develop well in the future, and is still in the policy waiting period.
The cost of paper-making is expected to rise and recover smoothly in the next two seasons. 1) Operating angle: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper this week were + 0.73% and + 7.33% month on month, the operating load rate of white cardboard was + 0.34% compared with last week, and the operating rates of box board corrugated paper were + 15.77% and + 21.54% month on month respectively. 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper this week are - 0.21% and - 2.23% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is - 4.68%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is - 1.76% and - 3.56% respectively; 3) Cost side: Maintenance & shipping intensifies, the pressure on the supply side is large, and the continuous cost side is strongly supported.
Consumer Light Industry: since 2021h2, the traditional stationery industry has been affected by the epidemic and the double reduction policy, and the willingness of the industrial chain to prepare the warehouse + downstream demand has been affected, resulting in periodic pressure on the performance. With the digestion of the industrial chain inventory + the improvement trend of the dynamic sales margin catalyzed by the primary flood season, it is optimistic that the stationery Longtou enterprise Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) will actively repair the growth through product structure strategy and channel structure adjustment, Q1 is optimistic about quarterly repair and improvement. In the medium and long term, under the Growth Logic of category expansion and structural optimization, the capacity boundary is expected to continue to expand. The new businesses kelipu and Jiumu are expected to further improve the growth quality on the basis of high growth and ensure the medium and long-term growth momentum.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Papermaking: it is recommended Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) . The impact of one-time energy cost has passed. In February and March, the price increase letters of 500 yuan / ton / time have been issued for key paper products. The first batch of price increases have been implemented smoothly. The growth logic is supported by high demand and capacity expansion. At present, the PE valuation is only 15x.
Risk factors
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China's consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The price of raw materials rose faster and longer than expected; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
