Investment strategy: the coal sector has performed strongly this week. We believe that the driving forces driving the rise of the sector are as follows: (1) the constraints on the supply side are stronger than expected, while the demand side will expand significantly under the background of steady growth, and the tight pattern of supply and demand is difficult to change. Superimposed on the recent continuous upside down of international coal prices, coal prices may continue to be realized at a high level, The profit of the sector in the first quarter or even the whole year may be better than expected. 2. The risk was fully released, the expectation of profit stability of the industry was improved, the early sector experienced significant adjustment, and had a strong understanding of the policy intention and tolerance. The medium and high coal price default by the policy improved the expectation of profit stability, which was conducive to enhancing the confidence of sector valuation and market allocation. 3. Since 2022, the overall profit-making effect of the A-share market is weak, and there is a demand for increased allocation of undervalued, abundant cash flow and high dividend sectors, while the coal sector fully meets the above conditions. For the above three points, there is no sign of marginal weakness at present, and we continue to be firmly optimistic about the performance of the coal sector. In terms of individual stock recommendation, the performance growth of companies with a high proportion of long-term association is more stable, and the valuation of companies with a high proportion of coal in the market is more attractive. Companies with large advantages of coal types or growth logic of output have strong alpha attribute. In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve the valuation. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: the price limit requirements are raised again, and the coal mines in the main production areas are generally implemented. As of February 18, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal was 1000 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, the environmental protection inspection in northern Shanxi is strict, and the coal shipment is limited. After the Spring Festival holiday, some coal mines have not resumed normal production. China’s supply is tight, and the policy puts forward the price limit requirements. The pit mouth price of coal mines in the main production area is 700 yuan / ton (5500 kcal). In terms of import, the import market price is loose, but the transaction is still relatively rare. At present, the external price is high, the price of medium and high calorie coal shipped to China is upside down, and the wait-and-see increase. In terms of demand, due to the recent snowfall and the impact of policies, there are fewer coal trucks in coal mines, more market wait-and-see, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high. At present, it is mainly rigid demand and long-term cooperative shipping. On the whole, the overall supply is tight, the daily consumption of the power plant is gradually rising, and more attention is paid to the recovery of coal mine capacity in the later stage.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the demand may usher in marginal improvement. As of February 18, the price of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port increased by 2500 yuan / ton, down 330 month on month. This week, coking coal prices are still mainly down, and the falling coal types are mainly coking coal and skeleton coal with slow price adjustment. However, with the improvement of coal mine shipments in the past two days and the boost of auction transactions, the quotation of individual coal mines began to rise. In terms of supply, after the Spring Festival, except for the slow resumption of coal production in Wuhai area, coal mines in other areas have basically returned to normal production, and the supply side continues to increase. According to Fenwei statistics, the raw coal output of sample coal mines this week increased by 307800 tons to 9.264 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 3.06% to 92.01% week on week. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port cleared customs on the 4th of this week, and the average daily customs clearance is still only 104 vehicles (week on week + 28 vehicles). In terms of demand, this week, some low inventory coke enterprises began to purchase appropriately, but they still focused on small order procurement, and some traders also began to store goods appropriately with small orders. The demand side is weak as a whole, but there are signs of improvement. With the steady growth policy, the resumption of steel mills is expected to be strong after the spring, and the downstream coke demand may improve.
Coke summary and Outlook: supply and demand pick up, stable and strong. As of February 18, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2810 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The national average profit per ton of coke is about – 61 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, with the gradual improvement of market sentiment, and the northern steel plant has a strong expectation of resumption of production. In terms of demand, the downstream steel mills began to increase their inventory appropriately. In addition, the diversion of goods sources by traders affected the smooth delivery of coke enterprises, and most of the inventory fell to a low level. On the whole, both ends of coke supply and demand have improved, coal mine shipments have improved, and the bidding prices of some coal mines have increased. Follow up attention will be paid to the inventory changes of coke enterprises and the improvement of infrastructure, real estate and other industries.
Power coal: the price of port coal fell and the port inventory decreased. (1) As of February 18, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal was 1000 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of February 17, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $233.69/ton, down 5.5% week on week. (3) As of February 18, the railway transfer volume of Qinhuangdao port was 501000 tons, with a decrease of 51000 tons compared with that of the ring road. The coal port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 501000 tons, an increase of 59000 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of February 18, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.02 million tons, an increase of 10000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 2.94 million tons, with a decrease of 190000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China fell, and the inventory of coking plants fell month on month. (1) As of February 18, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 2500 yuan / ton, down 330 on a weekly basis. (2) As of February 17, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $459.75/ton, up 0.11% on a weekly basis (3) As of February 18, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.515 million tons, with a decrease of 475000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant decreased. (1) As of February 18, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2810 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) The coke oven productivity of 100 independent coking plants in China was 68.10%, with a decrease of 1.40% on a weekly basis; (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of February 18, the coke inventory of China’s sample steel plants (110) was 7.4897 million tons, with a decrease of 36700 tons on a weekly basis; As of February 18, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 1185000 tons, with a decrease of 26000 tons on a weekly basis.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the goal of green and low-carbon transformation of energy is becoming clearer; (2) the State Administration of market supervision, the national development and Reform Commission The CSRC jointly reminded and warned some iron ore trading enterprises (3) Premier of the State Council: increase coal supply to ensure normal production and people’s livelihood; (4) Chinese buyers’ procurement in the shipping market is stagnant, and Indonesia’s power coal price has fallen slightly; (5) under the new concept, the coal index of high-energy consuming enterprises is now “deregulated”.
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
