Market review: from February 14 to February 18, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 1.61% as a whole, ranking the 22nd among all CITIC primary industry indexes, underperforming the CSI 300 index by about 2.7 percentage points in the same period. CITIC consumer service industry segments, integrated services, education, hotel catering, tourism and leisure sectors fell 0.79%, 2.29%, 4.02%, 6.64% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index. Six listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five increases being Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition Inc(300795) , Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Dark Horse Technology Group Co.Ltd(300688) , up 8.88%, 4.4%, 1.83%, 1.6% and 1.14% respectively. 48 companies achieved negative returns, of which the top five listed companies were Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(000526) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , down 10.5%, 10.64%, 11.35%, 11.50% and 14.63% respectively. As of February 18, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 43 times, basically the same as last week and 46.75 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors were 39.07 times, 56.49 times, 51.17 times and 61.08 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of February 18, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 212.97 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.081 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 5.5778 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 133.73 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 54.74%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 32.0376 million doses.
Important news: (1) many countries plan to gradually open tourism entry restrictions in the near future. (2) The National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. (3) As of February 13, the sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands had reached nearly 10 billion yuan, and the average daily duty-free sales since February had exceeded 300 million yuan.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, Japan, Vietnam and other neighboring countries plan to gradually relax the inbound tourism policy in the near future, and the global tourism recovery is strong. However, sporadic epidemics broke out in many provinces such as Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu, which put pressure on tourism travel in the short term. The National Health Commission has recently begun to deploy sequential covid-19 vaccination, which will further improve the immunization level and strengthen the expectation of epidemic control. Under the dual influence of the Winter Olympics and the local Chinese new year, the duty-free performance of Hainan outlying islands is strong. Recently, many luxury brands have withdrawn from Korean duty-free stores, which is expected to gradually transfer to the Chinese market and promote duty-free consumption. 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) (000796), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommend tax-free faucet China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888), etc; Recommend chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258) with high proportion of franchise stores and stable performance. It is recommended to pay careful attention to the “small and beautiful” middle-end direct hotel leaders Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (301073), etc; It is suggested to pay attention to Mount Emei (000888), the leader of natural scenic spots, and Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144), the leader of artificial scenic spots with large performance flexibility.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
