Energy storage:
1. Valuation: the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range, and the layout value is prominent. Since the beginning of 2022, under the background of the market style shift of the Fed's interest rate increase cycle, as of February 18, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 15%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet valuation; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on February 18, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) PE in 2022 / 2023 is 42 / 30 times; Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) PE is 38 / 29 times in 2022 / 2023.
2. Space: the high growth trend of the energy storage industry remains unchanged. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry will exceed 100% in 2022. The energy storage industry is currently in a period of accelerated development, and the development of energy storage outside China has increased significantly. We predict that the global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will be about 20-25 / 50 / 80gwh from 2021 to 2023. Compared with other sectors of Dianxin, energy storage is still the segment track with the fastest growth rate.
3. Policy: this year, the policy side is expected to continue to make efforts in the top-level design and further rationalize the business model of energy storage. Since the end of 2021, documents on the business model of energy storage have been released at the provincial level: Zhejiang and Ningxia have issued relevant policies to improve the enthusiasm of new energy storage construction through subsidies, and Guangdong has issued the implementation plan for power purchase by power grid enterprises in Guangdong Province (Trial), starting to transmit the energy storage cost to the user side. In the context of double carbon, it is expected that more energy storage policies will be implemented in 2022 to further rationalize the energy storage business model and accelerate the development of the energy storage industry.
4. Investment suggestion: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) .
Grid:
1. Since 2022, the whole market style has been biased towards the infrastructure sector, but we are concerned that there has been a certain correction in the new infrastructure sector of power grid. Why? We believe that from November to December 2021, the market's expectation of power grid investment is high, which gives the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. The current market's preference for the infrastructure sector is more due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hikes and China's steady growth. The style is more inclined to the infrastructure sector with undervalued value. As a result, the rise of traditional infrastructure and the correction of new infrastructure have emerged. At present, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid is gradually callback. We believe that corresponding to the performance in 2022, 15-25 times PE is a relatively reasonable allocation range.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
