Investment advice
This week's special topic: how to view the development of beer industry in the past 22 years β opportunity? This week, the mood of beer sector is rising, mainly due to: 1) the rise of epidemic repair logic. Beer is a sector with strong correlation with catering and high degree of certainty of price increase. 2) The negative emotions in the early stage were cleared, the data in January was positive, the channel feedback was positive, and the overall planning of the leading 22 years was positive. This week's special topics will include: 1) performance forecast, sorting out the volume, price and high-end progress of beer leaders in 21 years; 2) Predict the 22-year demand recovery, cost and price increase transmission concerned by the market.
Beer sector 22 years β Opportunities come from: 1) the marginal impact of the epidemic is weakened, and the demand in peak season is expected to improve (the sales volume is a low base since June). The 22-year sales growth plan of Tsingtao beer and China Resources is generally in the middle and low single digits. The Spring Festival in January is ahead of schedule and the data is good. The shipment slowed down due to the cold weather in February. 2) Price increase + structural upgrading boosted the chain comparison of ASP in 22 years. Price increase: more middle and high-grade products with low price sensitivity are included in this round, which is expected to be fully transmitted before the peak season. From the scope of the current price increase, the contribution of the price increase to the annual ASP is expected to be in the middle and low single digits (we calculate that China Resources, Tsingtao beer and heavy beer are 4%, 2-3% and 2% respectively). The subsequent launch of snowflake whole wheat pure raw materials and the upgrading of Qingdao pure raw materials from April to May are expected to realize the price increase in disguise. High end: the epidemic situation restricts the high-end process of 21h2. The leading 22-year plan is positive, and it is expected to basically continue the growth momentum of 21 years. The growth rate of China Resources is 20-25% for the second highest and above in 22 years. The growth rate of Tsingtao beer is estimated to be 15-20% in 21 years and more than 20% of the target in 22 years. Heavy beer plans to add 15 big cities in 22 years (10 in USSR alone), and the expansion speed is faster than the average in previous years. 3) Barley price locking is completed throughout the year, and the current cost uncertainty mainly comes from packaging materials. We predict that the growth rate of ton cost is high before and low after. Assuming that the change of ton cost of China Resources and Tsingtao beer in 22 years is in the median single digit, heavy beer is expected to benefit from scale effect + supply chain optimization. If the price of packaging materials before the peak season is better than expected, it is expected to release more profit elasticity.
The 22-year leaders are also consolidating their fundamentals: 1) China Resources bucked the trend and demonstrated its commitment to high-end investment. The 21-year key customer system started and made full efforts in 22 years. 2) Tsingtao Beer's cost investment has shifted from channel promotion to customer and brand cultivation. The cost-effectiveness ratio has been strengthened, and 1903 and pure production renewal will further enhance its competitiveness. 3) Since the end of the heavy beer horse racing mechanism, only one team has operated all channels and products in one sales area since 22 years, which can not only reduce internal friction and fleeing goods, but also help Wusu speed up the realization of channel empowerment of Lebao and 1664.
We believe that throughout the year, the beer sector has configuration value. It is estimated that Tsingtao Beer's profit in 22 years will be 3.4-3.5 billion (25-30% growth rate after excluding land compensation), China Resources's restored profit will be 4.8-5 billion (30% growth rate), and heavy beer's profit will be 1.46 billion (25% growth rate), corresponding to PE Tsingtao Beer 38x, Tsingtao Hong Kong shares 25X, China Resources 34x and heavy beer 47x in 22 years. Combined with the valuation and fundamentals, Tsingtao beer, China Resources and heavy beer are recommended (Q1 has a promising start), and the follow-up suggestions focus on the epidemic repair and the price change of packaging materials in peak seasons.
Drinking other sub sectors: 1) Baijiu: recent sector sentiment has continued to improve, we expect that after the Department is stable, the better feedback channel will gradually gain market recognition. At present, we still push the high-end liquor labels. We should pay attention to the regional Baijiu's performance in the trend of consumption upgrading and the best performance and flexibility.
2) condiments: the channel survey shows that during the Spring Festival, the preparation and shipment rhythm of condiments brands is smooth, and the dynamic sales and inventory are improved compared with the same period last year. We expect that with the steady landing of price increase and the recovery of catering demand, the condiment fundamentals will be stable and positive. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the improvement of dynamic sales ratio and the landing of price increase. 3) Dairy products: since this year, the dynamic sales of liquid milk has been good, and Yili has maintained double-digit growth. Channel feedback: in the past 21 years, the strong demand for high-end white milk from the top two companies has strongly driven the growth of revenue and profit. It is expected that the demand for dairy products will remain stable in 22 years, and appropriate cost control and structural improvement can drive the improvement of profit margin. 4) Snack food: Qiaqia's business is stable. During the Spring Festival, melon seeds are expected to increase by about 15% and nuts by more than 30%. We suggest that we continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement of some stressed companies.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk
