Key targets: recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ; Focus on Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , beiteri, Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
Investment perspective:
1. The price of lithium carbonate is stable at 400000 yuan / ton, and the cost pressure in the middle reaches of lithium battery is controllable. After the festival, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. According to the data of SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 430000 yuan / ton on February 17, 2022, standing firm at 400000 yuan / ton, and the cost pressure of raw materials in the upstream of lithium battery increased further. According to the calculation of our battery cost linkage model, according to the price of SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network on February 17, 2022, under the current metal price, the cost of NCM ternary cell is about 0.76 yuan / wh, and the total cost of lithium iron phosphate cell is 0.64 yuan / wh. Compared with the price of lithium carbonate at 300000 yuan / ton (SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network on January 7, 2022), the cost of NCM ternary cell increased by about 11%, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate cell increased by 12%. Transmitted to the vehicle end, according to the lithium carbonate price rising from 300000 yuan / ton to the current price, the cost change of single cell is about 2000 yuan, and the cost change proportion of single cell is about 1.3%, which has a controllable impact on the vehicle end cost.
Lithium battery enterprises have made positive progress in favorable price, and the supply chain management and control and cost advantages of leading enterprises are prominent. Due to the rise of raw material prices and the decline of subsidies and other factors, the prices of many terminal models have been adjusted, and the price adjustment range is within thousands of yuan, which has little impact on the terminal demand. Battery companies have made positive progress towards downstream favorable prices. Combined with low-cost and long-term single inventory, technological progress and scale effect, they can better digest the pressure of upstream price rise. Leading enterprises also smoothed price fluctuations through industrial chain layout and inventory, and further highlighted supply chain control and cost advantages. Recommended: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
2. The basic outlook continues. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times and a penetration rate of 17%. According to the China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 431000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times, with a chain ratio of – 18.6% and a penetration rate of 17%. In terms of power batteries, the total loading volume in January was 16.2gwh, an increase of 86.9% and a decrease of 38.3% month on month, of which the loading volume of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate were 7.3gwh and 8.9gwh respectively; The leading position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is stable, with the power battery market accounting for 50.2%, followed by Byd Company Limited(002594) and AVIC lithium battery.
From the perspective of supply and demand of the industrial chain, the supply of negative pole graphitization, diaphragm, copper foil and iron phosphate in the middle reaches of lithium battery in 2022 is relatively tight, and the lithium battery industry chain maintains a high outlook. Attention: beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
3. Under the background of continuous high price of lithium ore, the economy of lithium battery recovery is prominent. Lithium battery recycling helps to make up for the supply gap of upstream resources, especially lithium resources. Lithium battery recycling has broad market space and development prospects. Attention: Bangpu cycle ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , etc.
4. Since the second half of 2021, the progress of new technology of power battery has accelerated, and the industrialization of new technologies such as soft wrapped blade battery, 4680 large cylinder + CTC, composite collector technology (PET copper aluminum foil), silicon carbon negative electrode has accelerated. We pay attention to the improvement of subdivision pattern by new technologies. We recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , pay attention to Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , beiteri, Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) 。
Risk tips:
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Risks of changes in industrial policies and subsidies; The expansion of overseas auto enterprises is less than expected, and the competition intensifies the risk of declining profitability; Risk of technical route change.
