Benefiting from the intelligence and informatization of vehicles, the upgrading of various categories of on-board optics has accelerated. Thanks to the acceleration of the intelligent process of the car, as the "eye" of the car, the car sensor track represented by car CIS, car camera and car lidar is developing rapidly. At the same time, due to the demand for multi information interaction brought by vehicle intelligence, the vehicle optical subdivision fields such as vehicle HUD and intelligent lamps are also upgraded.
The global ADAS penetration rate is accelerating. It is estimated that only 14% of vehicles in the world will not have ADAS in 2025. According to the research prediction of Roland Berger, it is estimated that by 2025, 40% of vehicles in all regions of the world will have L1 function, and the proportion of vehicles with L2 and higher functions will reach 45%. Only 14% of vehicles in the world will not realize ADAS function. Among the specific ADAS functions, the functional penetration rate of L1 ~ L2 levels in 2025 will be greatly improved compared with that in 2020, while the ADAS functions of L3 and above will enter the public's view, in which the penetration rate of HWP and remote parking will reach 9%, and the penetration rate of fully automatic driving will also reach 1%.
Car cis - a 100 billion track under intelligent driving. As the core of camera, image sensor deeply benefits from the industry wave. According to TSR, the automotive CIS market will surpass consumer applications and become the second largest CIS application market after mobile applications in the future. The demand for single vehicle cameras will continue to increase with the increase of automatic driving technology level. We calculate that the global automotive CIS may impact 10 billion US dollars of market space in the future.
Adas will drive the rapid development of vehicle lens. Adas is the mainstream application technology scheme of automatic driving. Its key is the visual system, which can increase the driver's visibility by sensing the road environment, respond to dangerous situations when the driver is negligent, and increase the guarantee of driving safety. According to Roland Berger's prediction, only 14% of the world's vehicles will not have ADAS in 2025. At the same time, we predict that the number of lenses carried by a single vehicle will reach 7-9 by 2025.
Lidar: a necessary sensor for high-level automatic driving. In the weak light environment such as tunnel and garage, there are some defects in the technical principle of realizing L3 or even higher-level automatic driving through the algorithm of camera, and lidar can effectively solve it. At present, mechanical lidar, hybrid solid-state lidar (MEMS) and solid-state lidar (OPA & Flash) are developing together. According to the data of trendforce, vehicle mounted lidar will be the main application scenario of lidar in the future. The market share will be 60.0% and 83.0% respectively in 2020 and 2025, and its market scale will rise from US $409 million in 2020 to US $2434 million in 2025, The compound annual growth rate was 42.9%.
HUD: an important window for human vehicle interaction in the multi information age. With the rise of new energy vehicles and the popularity of automatic driving, the information that drivers need to pay attention to has become diversified, and HUD technology is particularly important. At present, w-hud is the mainstream scheme. At the same time, models equipped with ar-hud are gradually entering the public's view. It is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of ar-hud in China will increase from 1% in 2021 to 15%, and the supporting quantity will reach 3.4 million sets.
Smart lamp: change from "function" to "smart". Lamps have evolved from the previous single function product of ensuring night driving safety and warning vehicles to the role of vehicle information and data output carrier, realizing the role upgrading from "function" to "intelligence". At present, LED light source still occupies the mainstream in lamps, and some high-end cars are equipped with laser headlights. At present, China's intelligent lamps are mainly AFS and ADB. According to our calculation, the scale of China's intelligent lamps will reach 16.03 billion in 2021.
Tracking of key targets: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Shunyu optics, Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Juguang technology, Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) .
Risk warning: the penetration of automatic driving is less than expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Uncertainty of global economic environment; There may be error risk in the calculation.
