Sector market review
This week (02 / 14-02 / 18), the transportation index fell 0.87%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.08%, underperformed the market by 1.95%, ranking 24 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the railway sector increased the most (0.97%), and the aviation sector decreased the most (- 2.99%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: according to the data of the State Post Office, in January, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; Business income reached 91.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; The single ticket income was 10.45 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.35% and a month on month increase of 7.77% (reduction caliber). The single ticket income of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong were 17.47 yuan, 2.62 yuan, 2.72 yuan and 2.59 yuan respectively, up month on month. Express prices rose in the peak season, and the performance of express enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance express. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.87%. Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) issued the performance forecast for 2021, with a loss of 840-950 million yuan, mainly due to the asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, which still put pressure on the annual performance. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the 21q4 performance is expected to be profitable. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision makes the supply of the industry limited, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) with low valuation. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: the aviation department disclosed the operating data in January, with Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang ask + 2%, + 19.14%, + 6.51%, + 26.01%, – 3.54% year on year, and RPK + 0.7%, + 17.34%, + 0.4%, + 27.17%, – 10.38% year on year, which was improved compared with the same period in 2021. In January, the number of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) take-off and landing sorties increased by 13.99% year-on-year, the passenger throughput increased by 14.47% year-on-year, and the cargo and mail throughput decreased by 10.43% year-on-year; Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) take-off and landing sorties increased by 0.25% year-on-year, passenger throughput decreased by 7.29% year-on-year, and cargo and mail throughput increased by 8.91% year-on-year. The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and suspended the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year. In February 11, 2022, the State Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Pfizer’s COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid (nalmatv tablets / Ritonavir Tablets) for the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors. The 3 phase clinical trial showed that the risk of hospitalization and death could be reduced by 89%. Paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19 and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normality in production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3500.19 points, down 2.44% month on month; The SCFI index was 4946.01 points, down 0.7% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 699.00, up 1.7% month on month and 11.5% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 687.00, up 6.5% month on month and 20.3% year on year. We are concerned about the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations
