Recently, many banks have actively arranged real estate M & A projects and successively launched financial bonds with the theme of M & A. According to the current public market information, since this year, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) have started the issuance of real estate M & a theme bonds, of which Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) financial bonds were issued on January 21, with a scale of 5 billion yuan. Both Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) plan to issue real estate M & a themed bonds in the near future, with a scale of 5 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan respectively. In addition, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) has provided M & A financing services for many enterprises, with a total scale of 33 billion yuan.
Volume: government bonds and local bonds continued to maintain net financing, with a net financing of 149.8 billion, an increase of 342.2 billion year-on-year; The net financing scale of local bonds decreased month on month, but it still increased by 82.2 billion year-on-year. 1. Asset side: in the third week of February 2022, the net financing of local bonds was 53.7 billion, an increase of 82.2 billion over the same period last year. Due to the Spring Festival, the pace of local bond issuance slowed down slightly in the second and third weeks of February. According to the publicly disclosed data, 95 local bonds will be issued next week, with a financing amount of more than 250 billion, and the pace of issuance guided by the “forward force” of local bond countries will not decrease; The net financing of treasury bonds rebounded sharply, from net repayment of 143.4 billion last week to net financing of 149.8 billion, which was also significantly positive compared with the same period last year. 2. Liability side: in the third week of February, the financing strength of interbank certificates of deposit in the banking industry slowed down slightly. From the perspective of chain comparison, the net financing amount of state-owned banks was 77.5 billion, a slight decrease of 3.6 billion compared with that of last week, and the net financing amount of joint-stock banks was 109 billion, a decrease of 101.6 billion; The net financing of urban commercial banks was 17.6 billion, narrowed by 109.7 billion, and the net repayment of rural commercial banks was 19.6 billion.
Price: the net return of 150 billion yuan in the open market narrowed the term interest margin. 1. Asset side: in the third week of February, the open market operation continued to tighten the investment of funds. This week is the second week after the Spring Festival, with a net return of 250 billion yuan; Mlf15 continued production of 300 billion on the 5th, with a net investment of 100 billion. A total of 150 billion was recovered this week, and the tightening of liquidity was slow-release. 2. Debt side: active debt interest rates are differentiated. The active debt cost of large banks and rural commercial banks decreased, while joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks increased.
Credit risk: in the first three weeks of February, there were 2 cases of credit debt default, and the industry was real estate development, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, with a total scale of 1.22 billion. The number of credit debt defaults showed a downward trend, but the number and amount of relevant credit debt defaults of real estate enterprises rebounded due to the tight financing environment. Considering the marginal relaxation of the financing policy for real estate enterprises since November, and the current policy emphasizes that there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies under the expectation of “stable growth”, we judge that the current credit market risk will be significantly repaired compared with the previous period. There is no large credit risk as a whole, but individual regions and enterprises will be exposed to individual risks.
Suggestions on sector investment: the safety margin of the sector is relatively high at present, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank stocks. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is to choose banks that are undervalued, have safe asset quality and are expected to succeed in transformation. They are optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . The other is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term.
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
