Investment advice
View of semiconductor industry: Global foundry companies have put forward very strong revenue guidelines in the first quarter and 1-2 points of gross profit margin improvement. We estimate that the global foundry industry will grow by 25-30% year-on-year this year (TSMC estimates 20%), and the revenue of Huahong / Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) will grow by more than 40%. The previous shortage of materials and goods will be gradually relieved, Some OEM customers in China will grab a lot of production capacity and are optimistic about the month on month growth in the first quarter. Different from the market’s pessimistic attitude towards 23 years, we are optimistic about 2023 for three reasons: 1 This year, 25-30% of the revenue of wafer foundry increased by 15% year-on-year due to the increase of unit price and the change of product portfolio. The actual shipment of the industry is about 13-15%. In addition to the weakening of the chain of smartphone and consumer laptop industry, the demand for chips such as vehicles and servers is still higher than expected. The latest global chip inventory is about 3 months, which is 3.5-4 months lower than the reasonable inventory of the industry; 2. The shipment of high-power SiC, low-power IGBT, self driving microcontroller and other strong application chips in 2023 will strengthen the revenue and profit momentum due to the easing of wafer foundry capacity and flat price; 3. In recent years, Moore’s law has slowed down, the chip area has become larger and larger, and the number of layers has become more and more. In particular, huge capacity is consumed below 10nm, and 28nm capacity is also insufficient due to strong downstream demand. Unless we see a large increase in capacity and inventory in 2023 or a significant slowdown in demand, it seems too early to identify 2023 as a downward cycle. At present, the combination of Guojin semiconductor team is Lanqi, Jingchen, Zhongying, San’an, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) .
View of the electronics industry: new energy vehicles continued to maintain high growth year-on-year. In January 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, down 12.6% and 18.6% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times. In terms of silicon carbide, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued documents to support large-scale wind power generation and rural roof distributed photovoltaic power generation. Silicon carbide ushered in positive benefits. Infineon will invest more than 2 billion euros to expand SiC and Gan semiconductors. China’s smartphone shipments continued to be sluggish in January, waiting for demand to pick up. In January 2022, the Chinese market shipped 33.022 million phones, down 17.7% year-on-year. In terms of smartphones, it is suggested to pay attention to the contrarian growth of Apple industrial chain and glory industrial chain. In terms of AR / VR, the AR glasses product of nreal company, nreal air, will be officially sold in Japan, with a unit price including tax of about 2200 yuan; Andrew Bosworth, director of meta XR, said that eye tracking and whole-body tracking are the two major technical obstacles of VR; Qualcomm recently announced that it has opened an XR laboratory in Europe to increase its investment in XR and metauniverse. On the whole, we continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of electronic semiconductors for new energy and intelligent vehicles, focusing on silicon carbide, thin film capacitors, intelligent driving (camera, lidar) and connectors; In terms of consumer electronics, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities brought by the recovery of future demand, the pulling of goods in the industrial chain and innovation drive, and mainly focus on AR / VR, folding mobile phone innovation, domestic substitution of passive components and other fields; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicle and server.
From the perspective of the communication industry: the project of “counting from the east to the west” was officially launched, focusing on the investment opportunities of the new generation ICT industry chain. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments recently jointly issued a notice agreeing to start the construction of national hub nodes of the national integrated computing network in eight places, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and Chengdu and Chongqing, marking the completion of the overall layout design of the national integrated big data center system and the official and comprehensive start of the “East data and West computing” project. “Counting from the east to the west” project is a rebalancing and optimization of computing resources and energy supply nationwide under the “double carbon” strategy. It is also a major infrastructure project in the development of digital economy. In this context, the investment opportunities of the communication industry will be further transferred to the new generation of ICT industry. It is suggested to grasp relevant investment opportunities from two main lines: one is the head company with good market pattern and scale effect in the supply chain of new ICT infrastructure such as 5g, cloud, optical network, IOT perception and satellite Internet; Second, in the scenario of the integration of communication and vertical industries, including the high growth segment leaders in the tracks of emerging industries such as aiot, digital energy and smart cars.
Recommended combinations: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
