The pharmaceutical sector rebounded and continued to grasp the undervalued value and high boom. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 1.08%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 4.8%, ranking third among the 28 primary sub industries. The pharmaceutical sector rebounded significantly, and its sub sector medical services rose the most, at + 12.59%. We believe that the market pessimism is gradually released and the sector is expected to gradually pick up. In the future, we still suggest to grasp two directions: the fundamental improvement and valuation repair of the undervalued sector, such as API, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, specialty preparations, etc; High boom track with large adjustment in the early stage, such as cdmo / cro, upstream of life sciences, medical services, vaccines, etc.
The logic reconstruction of “pharmaceutical manufacturing” focuses on epidemic related + oversold rebound in the short term, and is optimistic about five directions in the future: 1) cdmo with large volume of new drugs on the market. Cdmo with traditional market understanding; Orders exceed expectations, performance is not expected, and the bottom rebound opportunity of adjustment in place: focus on Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Yaoming biology, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , etc. 2) Original research transfer CMO under the patent cliff. The arrival of the patent cliff will change the strategic positioning of the original research enterprises for products, so as to seek more “cost advantage” outsourcing enterprises; Such transfer projects have large incremental elasticity and short cycle, and are high-quality orders for the rapid development of enterprises: focus on Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , etc. 3) Generic API under patent cliff. From 2020 to 2027, many drug patents will expire, driving the rapid and large-scale volume of generic API, and the industry will enter a new growth stage: focus on Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) . 4) Share reconstruction under new processes and technologies. The share reconstruction of intermediate / API field depends on the breakthrough of new technology and new process, and is optimistic about API transformation cdmo enterprises with strong process ability and continuous R & D ability. 5) Extension of the integration of API and generic drugs. The policy environment of generic drugs is expected to reach the bottom, and the integrated supply chain and cost advantages deserve attention: focus on Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) .
CDE issued the technical guidelines for clinical trials of covid-19 specific drugs, and continued to pay attention to covid-19 therapeutic drugs and industrial chain investment opportunities. In February 17th, the national drug regulatory agency (CDE) issued the technical guidelines for clinical trials of New Coronavirus pneumonia new drugs, which provided technical reference for the design, implementation and evaluation of clinical trials of new COVID-19 specific drugs: (1) communicate well: no matter at any stage of clinical trials, they should actively communicate with CDE and reach a consensus with the reviewing body. ② For covid-19 pneumonia therapeutic study, randomized, placebo or non inferior design is adopted: if the positive control cannot be obtained, randomized, double-blind and placebo parallel control is recommended. If there is a confirmed effective drug on the market, it can be used as the standard treatment, and the action mechanism of the proposed test drug is similar to that of the standard treatment, the superior effect or non inferior effect design of the positive control can be considered; ③ For covid-19 pneumonia prevention study, randomized and placebo design is adopted: it is recommended to adopt randomized, double-blind and placebo parallel control study and superior efficacy trial design. Based on the current standard isolation observation measures, the main end point of diagnosis is COVID-19 pneumonia or the incidence rate. We believe that the guiding principles provide a constructive reference for the clinical design of covid-19 therapeutic drugs and are expected to promote the listing progress of covid-19 specific drugs. It is suggested to focus on three logics: ① Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises with high progress, such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; ② Large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises create cdmo industrial chains of new drugs, such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) ; ③ And generic drugs and API applications in other parts of the world.
Starting from the seventh batch of centralized purchase and reporting volume, the marginal change of relevant injection policies under normalization. On February 17, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) procurement network issued the notice on filling in the information of the seventh batch of drugs related to centralized drug procurement organized by the state. The filling in of the seventh batch of national procurement will be carried out from February 18, involving 56 varieties and covering 26 injections (accounting for about 46.4%). The policy progress is in line with expectations, the centralized procurement tends to be normal, and the overall impact on the pharmaceutical sector is limited. It is suggested to pay attention to the pattern, price and bid winning of key products of key enterprises. After more than three years of centralized purchase, the large varieties with the highest proportion of medical insurance have completed centralized purchase and price reduction. Blindly pursuing the lowest price is not the direction of the policy. The “policy bottom” of the generic pharmaceutical sector is expected to appear. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal change of normalization policy and the development and transformation of enterprise business. We are optimistic about high-quality enterprises with strong R & D ability, rich varieties, industrial chain integration and global layout. At the same time, we will continue to be optimistic about innovation, grasp the long-term investment opportunities after the return of the innovative drug sector, and be optimistic about the head company with strong R & D ability and rich pipelines and the high-quality biotech that truly realizes product innovation.
The National Health Commission began to deploy sequential immunization and suggested paying attention to investment opportunities in the vaccine sector. On February 19, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference to introduce the situation of epidemic prevention and control and vaccination. It was mentioned that recently, with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) . In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. Combined with the improvement of vaccination awareness under covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Performance of key recommended stocks: key recommendations in February: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Yaoming biology, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) ; The average rise this week was 9.95%, outperforming the pharmaceutical industry by 5.10%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 13.3%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 5.9%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 7.4% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 1.08%, the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 4.8%, ranking third among the 28 primary sub industries. All sub sectors rose, and the highest increase in medical services was 12.59%. Chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical devices and pharmaceutical businesses rose by 2.52%, 1.98%, 5.67% and 1.99% respectively.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
