One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC class I) rose 4.80%, 3.72 percentage points ahead of the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.08%, and the gem index rose 2.93%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment rose by 3.97%, wind power rose by 5.69% and photovoltaic rose by 5.28%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The price of silicon material has increased for five consecutive weeks, and the price of components has returned to a relatively high level. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, since the silicon material price stopped falling and rose slightly on January 12, 2022, the silicon material price has continued to rise for five consecutive weeks driven by multiple factors such as the off-season of 2022q1, the continuous increase of silicon wafer operating rate and the lower than expected increase of silicon material enterprise production expansion; According to the statistics of Zhihui photovoltaic, on February 15, the p-type module quotation of nearly 2 yuan / w (1.999 yuan / W) reappeared in the centralized procurement bid opening of the third batch of photovoltaic modules of China Resources Power, and the average bid opening prices of the two projects (Shanxi International and China Resources Power) opened in February were above 1.85 yuan / W. the high upstream prices combined with the strong downstream demand pushed the module prices back to a relatively high level.
2. The expectation of interest rate increase + economic downward pressure + the price game of the industrial chain continues, and the valuation of the photovoltaic sector is under pressure in the short term. U.S. CPI rose faster than expected, accelerating the expectation of interest rate hike, superimposing the upcoming downward pressure on the economy, and the increase of risk-free rate of return put pressure on the valuation of high valued assets; In addition, the price game of crystalline silicon industry chain continues to affect the short-term demand expectation and profitability repair. Under the comprehensive influence of external environment and internal game, the valuation of photovoltaic sector is under short-term pressure.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. Although the short-term valuation is under pressure, with the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, superimposing the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), and the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities, Focus on recommending the leading Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) with poor expectations in the market. (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise in 2022q1 due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) with rapid development. (4) In the process of module price decline, overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first. It is recommended that the whole county promote distributed leading Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China’s sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW), When the bidding price drops rapidly, if the enterprise wants to maintain its profitability, it needs to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce expenditure (localization of parts and components and cost reduction); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. Investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations. Under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Under the domestic substitution logic, focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the profit recovery logic: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
