The auto sector rebounded this week, led by new energy and smart cars. CITIC auto index rose 2.07% this week, outperforming the market by 0.98 percentage points, ranking 10th among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars rose 2.96%, commercial vehicles fell 0.95%, auto parts rose 2.25%, new energy vehicle index rose 7.09%, and intelligent vehicle index rose 4.78%. The auto sector has been continuously adjusted since December 2021, with a decline of 15.1%, mainly driven by the new energy vehicle and passenger vehicle sectors (down 20.5% and 20.8% respectively). Auto parts and intelligent vehicles have strong performance and are relatively resistant to decline, down 12.7% and 11.0% respectively. The logic of the former is Tesla cycle and the rise of independent brands. The logic of the latter is the centralized loading of high-end intelligent hardware in 2022, The industrial chain is expected to usher in a wave of performance release.
The sales volume of China Automobile Association in January was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Independent brands continued to rise. The sales volume of passenger cars was 2.186 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; Under the background of high base in January last year, the sales performance in January was good, mainly due to the replenishment demand after the marginal relief of “core shortage”. The sales volume of commercial vehicles was 344000, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. In January, the sales volume of independent brand passenger cars was 1.003 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; The sales volume of foreign capital / joint venture is 1183000, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The self owned brand is still much stronger than that of foreign capital / joint venture. In terms of market share, the share of independent passenger cars in January was 45.9%, up + 3.5pct year-on-year, and continued to rise.
In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 135.8% year-on-year and the penetration rate was 14.8%. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8%, continuing to grow at a high rate; Affected by the decline of subsidies in January and the price increase of some auto enterprises, the sales volume in January decreased by 18.6% month on month, much stronger than – 27.8% in the same period in 2021, exceeding market expectations, reflecting that the demand is still strong. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 14.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.7pct; The penetration rate of passenger cars was 16.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.2pct. From the perspective of car enterprises, Tesla delivered 19300 vehicles in China in January; “Weixiaoli” delivered 9700, 12900 and 12300 vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 8.0%, – 19.2% and – 12.9% respectively; Among other new forces, Nezha, Zero run and extreme krypton delivered 11000, 8100 and 35000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 3.6%, + 8.7% and – 7.0% respectively. Overall, compared with the overall performance of the industry, the new forces are still relatively strong.
Investment suggestion: Q1 is a good time to lay out the automobile sector. Since December last year, the overall adjustment range and time length of the sector have been sufficient. The demand shown by the data in January is still strong. The impact of price rise and subsidy decline on the sales of new energy vehicles is not as large as expected. Considering the high growth of Q1 performance announced in April and the event catalysis of Shanghai International Auto Show, it is expected that the auto sector will rebound significantly in Q2. Recommended attention,
1) intelligent driving industry chain, focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optics, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focus on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
