Event overview:
After the Spring Festival, the spot price and futures price of commodity coniferous pulp continued to rise. Household paper enterprises that are most sensitive to the price of commodity pulp have issued price increase letters, and the market prices of cultural paper and white cardboard, which also use wood pulp as raw materials, have also increased. We expect that cultural paper and white cardboard paper mills will raise prices one after another next month, The boom is expected to continue to rise, and the price of white paper is expected to continue to rise.
Analysis and judgment:
Raw material side: the spot price and futures price of commodity pulp rose simultaneously. As of February 18, the average spot price of Chinese commodity coniferous pulp was 6400 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.67% since the beginning of the year. The main contract price of coniferous pulp futures rose from 6078 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6522 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.31%. The price of outer disk coniferous pulp also increased from 575 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to 600 US dollars / ton. Affected by the rise of coniferous pulp, the spot price of China's broad-leaved pulp also rose from 5125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 5450 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.34%. The rise in the price of wood pulp is mainly due to the news of maintenance issued by overseas pulp factories one after another. At the same time, the shortage of shipping has led to the delay in the arrival of overseas commercial pulp in Hong Kong, and the commercial pulp available for export is still relatively tight.
Household paper mills have issued price increase letters one after another: due to the continuous rise in the price of wood pulp, major household paper enterprises such as jinhongye, Liwen, Taisheng and Taiyang have recently issued price increase letters one after another, ranging from 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton. As of February 18, the average market price of household paper had reached 6450 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from the beginning of the year. We believe that the price of wood pulp is still in the rising cycle, and the cost still plays a supporting role in the rising price of household paper.
The market prices of double offset paper and white cardboard have increased. It is expected that the paper mills will successively issue price increase letters: as of February 18, the average market price of double offset paper has increased by 3.79% from 5216.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 5825 yuan / ton. The average market price of white cardboard increased by 5.52% from 5871 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6195 yuan / ton. We believe that the rise in the market prices of double offset paper and white cardboard is mainly driven by the rise in the price of cost wood pulp, as well as the booming overseas demand and the better order receiving situation of paper mills. At the same time, the enterprise inventory of double offset paper and white cardboard also decreased significantly this week. The inventory days of double offset paper enterprises decreased by 2.23% compared with last week, and the inventory days of white cardboard enterprises decreased by 4.68% compared with last week. It also proves that the shipment of double offset paper and white cardboard is in good condition, and some downstream are willing to take goods. We believe that when the enterprise inventory decreases and the market price rises, the paper mill will probably issue a price increase letter to strengthen market confidence and promote the prosperity of the industry.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the industry "recommended" rating. We believe that the recent rise in the price of Chinese wood pulp caused by the shutdown and maintenance of overseas pulp plants and the shortage of shipping will not be alleviated in the short term, and the cost side has the power to promote the rise of paper price. At the same time, overseas paper prices will not fall rapidly in the short term, and China's paper export growth can continue to be maintained. Under the background of reduced imports and increased exports, the paper supply in the Chinese market will be relatively reduced, and the paper mills can more easily promote the steady increase of paper prices. Recommended object: Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) . In addition, we are optimistic about the development direction of paper industry chain such as forestry carbon sequestration, and the target of benefit is the leading enterprise of Party and government cultural paper.
Risk tips
1) overseas demand is lower than expected, resulting in a decrease in exports. 2) China's large-scale production capacity has caused oversupply
