Zhou viewpoint: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. The new energy delivery volume of new forces and traditional car enterprises increased year-on-year, and the product power continued to pry demand. In January, the performance of passenger car insurance exceeded expectations, and the prosperity of terminal demand was high. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: the wholesale sales volume in January was in line with expectations, and the performance of Shanghai insurance was brilliant. According to the China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the wholesale of narrow passenger cars was 2.156 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.3% and a month on month increase of - 9.4%; In January, the output of narrow passenger cars was 2.046 million, up + 8.5% year-on-year and - 17.4% month on month. In January, 2.174 million narrow passenger cars were insured, with a year-on-year increase of - 4.1% and a month on month increase of - 0.6%. We judge that the growth rate of passenger car sales this year is expected to exceed 5%, new energy is the core increment, and the terminal demand is still considerable; Medium and short-term passenger car manufacturers ushered in additional storage under the improvement of core shortage margin. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand upward and increase the market share with the help of reform, recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing the intelligent electric configuration, hoping to achieve the brand upward: preferred acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting - [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seats - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior decoration - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type -[ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy thermal management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficial targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefit target [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in December, China sold 33400 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 107.1% and a month on month increase of + 28.3% (333000 motorcycles were sold from January to December, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.8%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall stronger than the market, led by parts
This week, the A-share auto sector rose by 1.94% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 10th in shenwanzi industry, stronger than CSI 300 (up 0.90%). In the sub sectors, parts, passenger cars and automobile services rose by 2.28%, 2.15% and 1.34% respectively; Passenger cars, other transportation equipment and trucks decreased by 0.57%, 0.73% and 1.34% respectively.
This week's data: the Spring Festival holiday affects wholesale and retail sales, with a large decline month on month
Wholesale and retail sales decreased significantly compared with the previous month and improved significantly year-on-year. In the second week of February, the average daily wholesale was 2.7 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 23% and a month on month increase of - 47%; In the second week of February, the average daily retail sales volume was 26000, with a year-on-year increase of + 13% and a month on month decrease of - 57%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
